PMP · MMAUFC Paris
Main Event · Lightweight
Dan Hooker24-14
VSSalahdine Parnasse23-2
UFC · MMA
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · main card 3:00 PM EDT · Accor Arena · Paramount+
The 7 OraclesPMP · MMAUFC ParisSaturday, September 5, 2026Quick Answer
As of August 25, 2026, the market favors Salahdine Parnasse in the Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse lightweight main event at UFC Paris (Saturday, September 5, 2026). Live win probabilities and American odds for all 12 bouts are in the tale of the tape below.
Why you can trade this card
UFC Fight Night cards trade on Kalshi — a CFTC-regulated exchange open in all 50 states, no local sportsbook account required — and on Polymarket, which is open to US traders. Two venues, one card, two different order books.
What the market says
The full card at a glance — the market favorite, cross-platform price gap, method lean and liquidity for every bout. Market-derived, not a pick.
Sort:
| Bout | Market favorite | Cross-platform gap | Method lean | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse Main Event · Lightweight | Salahdine Parnasse79%-376 | — | — | $100Low |
Farès Ziam vs Axel Sola Co-Main Event · Lightweight | Farès Ziam58%-138 | — | — | — |
Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev Middleweight | Michael Page62%-163 | — | — | $28Low |
Morgan Charrière vs Felipe Lima Featherweight | Felipe Lima70%-233 | 0.0ppALIGNED | — | $1KLow |
Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov Featherweight | Losene Keita71%-245 | — | — | — |
Mário Pinto vs Ryan Spann Heavyweight | Mário Pinto71%-245 | — | — | — |
Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek Featherweight | Kurtis Campbell74%-285 | — | — | $27Low |
Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Light Heavyweight | Oumar Sy60%-150 | — | — | — |
Nathaniel Wood vs Mairon Santos Featherweight | Mairon Santos51%-104 | — | — | $457Low |
Nora Cornolle vs Klaudia Syguła Women's Bantamweight | Nora Cornolle54%-117 | — | — | $5Low |
Matthieu Letho Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias Middleweight | Luis Felipe Dias55%-122 | — | — | — |
Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro Prelims · Women's Strawweight | Delphine Benouaich59%-144 | — | — | — |
Market-derived signals, not a pick. A position can settle at $0 — informational only, trade responsibly.
Main card
PMP · MMAUFC Paris
Main Event · Lightweight
Dan Hooker24-14
VSSalahdine Parnasse23-2
PMP · MMAUFC Paris
Co-Main Event · Lightweight
Farès Ziam18-5
VSAxel Sola12-1-1
PMP · MMAUFC Paris
Middleweight
Michael Page25-3
VSNursulton Ruziboev37-9-2
PMP · MMAUFC Paris
Featherweight
Morgan Charrière21-12-1
VSFelipe Lima14-2
PMP · MMAUFC Paris
Featherweight
Losene Keita16-2
VSMuhammad Naimov13-4
Prelims
PMP · MMAUFC Paris
Heavyweight
Mário Pinto12-0
VSRyan Spann24-11
PMP · MMAUFC Paris
Featherweight
Kurtis Campbell8-1
VSTrevor Peek9-3
PMP · MMAUFC Paris
Light Heavyweight
Oumar Sy12-2
VSModestas Bukauskas20-7
PMP · MMAUFC Paris
Featherweight
Nathaniel Wood23-6
VSMairon Santos18-1
PMP · MMAUFC Paris
Women's Bantamweight
Nora Cornolle9-4
VSKlaudia Syguła8-2
PMP · MMAUFC Paris
Middleweight
Matthieu Letho Duclos10-3
VSLuis Felipe Dias18-5
PMP · MMAUFC Paris
Prelims · Women's Strawweight
Delphine Benouaich7-2
VSSofia Montenegro6-2
The prediction-market read
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse brings 12 bouts to Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday, September 5, 2026, live on Paramount+. The card is headlined by Dan Hooker (24-14) against Salahdine Parnasse (23-2) in the lightweight division.
The tale of the tape above carries the live market read for 12 of 12 bouts — each fighter's market-implied win probability in cents and comma-free American odds, with the market favorite tinted green. Prices come from Kalshi's combat-fight contracts, with a Polymarket fallback where PFL fights trade.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
UFC Paris — frequently asked
Who is favored at UFC Paris?
The market favors Salahdine Parnasse in the Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse main event. The tale of the tape above lists the live market-implied win probability and American odds for every bout on the card; the favorite is tinted green.
How can I watch UFC Paris?
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse streams on Paramount+. Prelims start 12:00 PM EDT, with the main card at 3:00 PM EDT on Saturday, September 5, 2026. While you watch, the live market read for every bout — market-implied win probability and comma-free American odds — is on this page the moment UFC Paris's contracts list.
Can you trade UFC Paris fights on Kalshi or Polymarket?
Yes — these are prediction markets, not a sportsbook. UFC cards carry live markets on both venues: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available to traders in all 50 states, and Polymarket is open to US traders too. We lead with Kalshi for the broader US-listed slate and the deeper per-market book. You take a yes/no position on a fighter in a contract that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where is UFC Paris?
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse takes place Saturday, September 5, 2026 at Accor Arena in Paris, broadcast on Paramount+. Main card starts 3:00 PM EDT.
How do prediction-market MMA odds work?
Each fighter's price is the market-implied probability they win, quoted in cents (a 69¢ contract implies a 69% chance) and shown here as comma-free American odds. Unlike a sportsbook line, the contract settles at $1 if the fighter wins and $0 if they lose, so the price IS the probability.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.