PMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123
Main Event · Lightweight
Renato Moicano21-7-1 · #12
VSTom Nolan11-1 · #14
UFC · MMA
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Saturday, October 31, 2026 · main card 8:00 PM EDT · Meta APEX · Paramount+
The 7 OraclesPMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123Saturday, October 31, 2026Quick Answer
As of October 29, 2026, the market favors Renato Moicano in the Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan lightweight main event at UFC Vegas 123 (Saturday, October 31, 2026). Live win probabilities and American odds for all 12 bouts are in the tale of the tape below.
Why you can trade this card
#12 Renato Moicano, who challenged for the lightweight title in 2025, headlines Halloween night at the Meta APEX against #14 Tom Nolan, who took the fight after Brian Ortega withdrew. Every bout on the card is listed on Kalshi.
What the market says
The full card at a glance — the market favorite, cross-platform price gap, method lean and liquidity for every bout. Market-derived, not a pick.
Sort:
| Bout | Market favorite | Cross-platform gap | Method lean | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan Main Event · Lightweight | Renato Moicano54%-117 | 0.0ppALIGNED | — | $11K |
Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith Co-Main Event · Welterweight | Jacobe Smith72%-257 | 1.0ppALIGNED | — | $3KLow |
Ode' Osbourne vs Cody Durden Flyweight | Cody Durden52%-108 | 0.0ppALIGNED | — | $769Low |
Yana Santos vs Luana Santos Women's Bantamweight | Luana Santos74%-285 | 2.0ppALIGNED | — | $10K |
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov Welterweight | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani73%-270 | 2.0ppALIGNED | — | $2KLow |
Francis Marshall vs Dakota Hope Featherweight | Francis Marshall66%-194 | 1.0ppALIGNED | — | $34K |
Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren Welterweight | Rodrigo Sezinando63%-170 | 1.0ppALIGNED | — | $19K |
Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee Featherweight | JeongYeong Lee61%-156 | 1.0ppALIGNED | — | $11K |
Zach Reese vs Mickey Gall Middleweight | Zach Reese75%-300 | 1.0ppALIGNED | — | $1KLow |
Nick Klein vs Joe Kropschot Middleweight | Joe Kropschot74%-285 | 1.0ppALIGNED | — | $2KLow |
Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez Women's Strawweight | Piera Rodriguez71%-245 | 2.0ppALIGNED | — | $1KLow |
Lucia Szabová vs Tainara Lisboa Women's Flyweight | Lucia Szabová85%-567 | 2.0ppALIGNED | — | $9KLow |
Market-derived signals, not a pick. A position can settle at $0 — informational only, trade responsibly.
Main card
PMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123
Main Event · Lightweight
Renato Moicano21-7-1 · #12
VSTom Nolan11-1 · #14
PMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123
Co-Main Event · Welterweight
Randy Brown20-8
VSJacobe Smith13-0
PMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123
Flyweight
Ode' Osbourne13-9
VSCody Durden18-11-1
PMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123
Women's Bantamweight
Yana Santos17-8 · #6
VSLuana Santos11-2 · #7
PMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123
Welterweight
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani11-2
VSFarman Hasanov5-0
Prelims
PMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123
Featherweight
Francis Marshall10-3
VSDakota Hope11-2
PMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123
Welterweight
Rodrigo Sezinando9-2
VSTheodor Berggren8-4
PMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123
Featherweight
Julian Erosa31-14
VSJeongYeong Lee11-3
PMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123
Middleweight
Zach Reese10-4
VSMickey Gall7-7
PMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123
Middleweight
Nick Klein6-3
VSJoe Kropschot9-3
PMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123
Women's Strawweight
Talita Alencar8-1-1
VSPiera Rodriguez12-2
PMP · MMAUFC Vegas 123
Women's Flyweight
Lucia Szabová12-0
VSTainara Lisboa7-4
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The prediction-market read
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan brings 12 bouts to Meta APEX in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday, October 31, 2026, live on Paramount+. The card is headlined by Renato Moicano (21-7-1, ranked #12) against Tom Nolan (11-1, #14) in the lightweight division.
The tale of the tape above carries the live market read for 12 of 12 bouts — each fighter's market-implied win probability in cents and comma-free American odds, with the market favorite tinted green. Prices come from Kalshi's combat-fight contracts, with a Polymarket fallback where PFL fights trade.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Last time out
1 fighter on this card last fought at UFC 332 (Sat, Oct 3): UFC 332 results
Jacobe Smith (W)
UFC Vegas 123 — frequently asked
Who is favored at UFC Vegas 123?
The market favors Renato Moicano in the Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan main event. The tale of the tape above lists the live market-implied win probability and American odds for every bout on the card; the favorite is tinted green.
How can I watch UFC Vegas 123?
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan streams on Paramount+. Prelims start 5:00 PM EDT, with the main card at 8:00 PM EDT on Saturday, October 31, 2026. While you watch, the live market read for every bout — market-implied win probability and comma-free American odds — is on this page the moment UFC Vegas 123's contracts list.
Can you trade UFC Vegas 123 fights on Kalshi or Polymarket US?
Yes — these are prediction markets, not a sportsbook. UFC cards can list on both venues: Kalshi and Polymarket US are both CFTC-regulated exchanges, and availability varies by state. We lead with Kalshi for the broader US-listed slate and the deeper per-market book. You take a yes/no position on a fighter in a contract that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where is UFC Vegas 123?
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan takes place Saturday, October 31, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, NV, broadcast on Paramount+. Main card starts 8:00 PM EDT.
How do prediction-market MMA odds work?
Each fighter's price is the market-implied probability they win, quoted in cents (a 69¢ contract implies a 69% chance) and shown here as comma-free American odds. Unlike a sportsbook line, the contract settles at $1 if the fighter wins and $0 if they lose, so the price IS the probability.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.