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FED DESK

Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures on the next FOMC decision

Fed Rate Tracker · live

15-MINUTE

Every Kalshi 15-minute window, priced against the late-flip risk

Bitcoin · gold · silver · oil

MIDTERMS

Every 2026 race priced on Kalshi and Polymarket

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COMBO EDGE

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SILVER EDGE

Options vs. Kalshi on weekly silver brackets

KalshiCommodities

Silver price up in next 15 mins?

87c

YES · 87% implied

10K

contracts 24h

13K

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Resolves YES if the Pyth SILVER 1-minute candlestick close price at the end of the 15-minute window (the minute ending at the settlement time) is at least (≥) the Pyth SILVER 1-minute candlestick close price at the start of the 15-minute window (the minute 15 minutes prior), both in USD, on the settlement date.

  • Pyth oracle, not a traditional exchange feed — Settlement uses Pyth's on-chain SILVER price, which may diverge from CME, spot, or other silver benchmarks a trader might be watching.
  • 1-minute candle close, not spot mid or last trade — The comparison uses the closing print of specific 1-minute candlesticks at each boundary of the 15-minute window — not a real-time spot quote or VWAP — so timing within the minute does not matter, only the candle's final close.
  • ≥ threshold resolves YES; exact tie is not a NO — The resolution condition is 'at least' (≥), so if both candle closes are identical the contract resolves YES, not NO.
  • EDT timezone anchors both window boundaries — Both reference times are specified in EDT; any clock confusion (e.g. reading UTC or EST) would shift the candles being compared and could lead a trader to misjudge the outcome.

These are the rules for the whole series — every contract in it settles the same way. Full KXSILVER15M settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

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