Settles YES when
Resolves YES if the Pyth SILVER 1-minute candlestick close price at the end of the 15-minute window (the minute ending at the settlement time) is at least (≥) the Pyth SILVER 1-minute candlestick close price at the start of the 15-minute window (the minute 15 minutes prior), both in USD, on the settlement date.
4 resolution traps in the KXSILVER15M rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
Silver 15-minuteResolves YES if the Pyth SILVER 1-minute candlestick close price at the end of the 15-minute window (the minute ending at the settlement time) is at least (≥) the Pyth SILVER 1-minute candlestick close price at the start of the 15-minute window (the minute 15 minutes prior), both in USD, on the settlement date.4 traps
- Pyth oracle, not a traditional exchange feed — Settlement uses Pyth's on-chain SILVER price, which may diverge from CME, spot, or other silver benchmarks a trader might be watching.
- 1-minute candle close, not spot mid or last trade — The comparison uses the closing print of specific 1-minute candlesticks at each boundary of the 15-minute window — not a real-time spot quote or VWAP — so timing within the minute does not matter, only the candle's final close.
- ≥ threshold resolves YES; exact tie is not a NO — The resolution condition is 'at least' (≥), so if both candle closes are identical the contract resolves YES, not NO.
- EDT timezone anchors both window boundaries — Both reference times are specified in EDT; any clock confusion (e.g. reading UTC or EST) would shift the candles being compared and could lead a trader to misjudge the outcome.
KXSILVER15M contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
How close our price feed is to Kalshi's settlement print
Kalshi settles KXSILVER15M on the close of a single Pyth 1-minute candle, and publishes the exact figure it used. We record our own independent read at that instant and score it against theirs. Rounded to 3 decimals, the precision this series settles at.
Every miss, listed
- lag 2026-09-28 12:45Z · off by 0.016
- lag 2026-09-28 12:45Z · off by 0.181
- large 2026-09-28 12:30Z · off by 0.014
- lag 2026-09-28 12:30Z · off by 0.062
- tick 2026-09-28 12:15Z · off by 0.002
- lag 2026-09-28 12:15Z · off by 0.325
- lag 2026-09-28 12:00Z · off by 0.009
- lag 2026-09-28 12:00Z · off by 0.098
- lag 2026-09-28 11:45Z · off by 0.015
- lag 2026-09-28 11:45Z · off by 0.019
This is a measured approximation, not the settlement feed itself. If a contract is decided by the last tick at the final decimal place, do not size it off this. Trade responsibly.
Our record on KXSILVER15M
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Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Silver 15-minute markets?
Resolves YES if the Pyth SILVER 1-minute candlestick close price at the end of the 15-minute window (the minute ending at the settlement time) is at least (≥) the Pyth SILVER 1-minute candlestick close price at the start of the 15-minute window (the minute 15 minutes prior), both in USD, on the settlement date. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Silver 15-minute contract resolves?
We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Pyth oracle, not a traditional exchange feed — Settlement uses Pyth's on-chain SILVER price, which may diverge from CME, spot, or other silver benchmarks a trader might be watching.
What does the KXSILVER15M ticker mean?
KXSILVER15M is Kalshi's series ticker for Silver 15-minute. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Silver 15-minute?
Not yet. We track KXSILVER15M settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
How accurate is your price feed against Kalshi's KXSILVER15M settlement?
Across 2247 settled instants measured so far, our independent read reproduced Kalshi's published settlement print to within one tick 106 times — mean absolute error 0.06113, worst 1.097. Kalshi settles on the close of a single Pyth 1-minute candle, and publishes the exact number it used, so this is measured against their own print, not an estimate. We started recording on 2026-09-08 and nothing before that can be reconstructed, so the sample is small and stated rather than rounded up.
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.