How Kalshi settles 15-Minute Silver contracts
Reviewed by Benny Ricciardi
Rules last read
Settles YES when
Resolves YES if the Pyth Silver (USD/t.oz) 1-minute candlestick close at the end of the 15-minute window is greater than or equal to the Pyth Silver 1-minute candlestick close at the start of that window.
4 resolution traps in the KXSILVER15M rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles β which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
15-Minute SilverResolves YES if the Pyth Silver (USD/t.oz) 1-minute candlestick close at the end of the 15-minute window is greater than or equal to the Pyth Silver 1-minute candlestick close at the start of that window.4 traps
- Pyth is the sole data source β Settlement uses Pyth's SILVER feed exclusively β not CME, Bloomberg, or any other silver benchmark β so Pyth-specific outages, price anomalies, or feed latency directly affect resolution regardless of where spot silver actually trades.
- 1-minute close, not OHLC average or spot mid β Only the closing print of the 1-minute candle at each boundary is compared; the high, low, or average price within those minutes is irrelevant, so a candle that spikes but closes flat could swing resolution unexpectedly.
- Timezone mislabelling: start is EDT, end is EST β The rules label the opening candle 6:30 AM EDT and the closing candle 6:45 AM EST β EDT and EST differ by one hour, so if taken literally these are not 15 minutes apart; traders must confirm whether both timestamps are intended to be the same timezone offset to know the true window boundaries.
- At-threshold resolves YES (β₯, not >) β The comparison is greater than or equal to, so an identical close price at both boundaries is sufficient for YES β a position expecting a strict price increase to win would be wrong.
KXSILVER15M contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability β 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
How close our price feed is to Kalshi's settlement print
Kalshi settles KXSILVER15M on the close of a single Pyth 1-minute candle, and publishes the exact figure it used. We record our own independent read at that instant and score it against theirs. Rounded to 3 decimals, the precision this series settles at.
Every miss, listed
- lag 2026-11-13 12:00Z Β· off by 0.012
- lag 2026-11-13 12:00Z Β· off by 0.116
- large 2026-11-13 11:45Z Β· off by 0.006
- lag 2026-11-13 11:45Z Β· off by 0.033
- lag 2026-11-13 11:30Z Β· off by 0.003
- lag 2026-11-13 11:30Z Β· off by 0.075
- lag 2026-11-13 11:15Z Β· off by 0.007
- lag 2026-11-13 11:15Z Β· off by 0.032
- large 2026-11-13 11:00Z Β· off by 0.006
- lag 2026-11-13 11:00Z Β· off by 0.036
This is a measured approximation, not the settlement feed itself. If a contract is decided by the last tick at the final decimal place, do not size it off this. Trade responsibly.
Our record on KXSILVER15M
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How Kalshi settles 15-Minute Silver β frequently asked
How does Kalshi settle 15-Minute Silver markets?
Resolves YES if the Pyth Silver (USD/t.oz) 1-minute candlestick close at the end of the 15-minute window is greater than or equal to the Pyth Silver 1-minute candlestick close at the start of that window. That criterion is the whole contract β the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a 15-Minute Silver contract resolves?
We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Pyth is the sole data source β Settlement uses Pyth's SILVER feed exclusively β not CME, Bloomberg, or any other silver benchmark β so Pyth-specific outages, price anomalies, or feed latency directly affect resolution regardless of where spot silver actually trades.
What does the KXSILVER15M ticker mean?
KXSILVER15M is Kalshi's series ticker for 15-Minute Silver. Individual contracts append the event and the strike β so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading 15-Minute Silver?
Not yet. We track KXSILVER15M settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
How accurate is your price feed against Kalshi's KXSILVER15M settlement?
Across 8225 settled instants measured so far, our independent read reproduced Kalshi's published settlement print to within one tick 733 times β mean absolute error NaN, worst NaN. Kalshi settles on the close of a single Pyth 1-minute candle, and publishes the exact number it used, so this is measured against their own print, not an estimate. We started recording on 2026-09-08 and nothing before that can be reconstructed, so the sample is small and stated rather than rounded up.
This is our reading of Kalshiβs published resolution rules, not a substitute for them β read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.