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FED DESK

Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures on the next FOMC decision

Fed Rate Tracker · live

15-MINUTE

Every Kalshi 15-minute window, priced against the late-flip risk

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MIDTERMS

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SILVER EDGE

Options vs. Kalshi on weekly silver brackets

KalshiCommodities

Gold price up in next 15 mins?

60c

YES · 60% implied

45K

contracts 24h

50K

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Resolves YES if the Pyth GOLD 1-minute candlestick close price at the end of the 15-minute window is greater than or equal to the Pyth GOLD 1-minute candlestick close price at the start of the 15-minute window, denominated in USD.

  • Pyth is the sole data source — not spot or futures — Settlement uses Pyth Network's GOLD feed exclusively; prices from other gold benchmarks (e.g., CME futures, LBMA) are irrelevant and may diverge meaningfully, especially outside regular market hours.
  • 1-minute candle close, not the 15-minute candle close — Despite the '15-minute' series name, resolution compares two specific 1-minute candlestick closes (the start and end of the window), so intra-window price action and the 15-minute OHLC bar are both irrelevant.
  • At-threshold resolves YES (≥, not >) — The comparison is 'at least' (≥), so if the closing price at the end of the window exactly equals the opening-window close, the contract resolves YES — a flat period is not a loss.
  • 15-minute cadence; no single fixed settlement time — This is a repeating series settling every 15 minutes; each contract's window is defined by its own start and end timestamps, so traders must confirm the exact window boundaries for each specific contract rather than assuming a fixed daily time.

These are the rules for the whole series — every contract in it settles the same way. Full KXGOLD15M settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

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