Settles YES when
Resolves YES if the Pyth GOLD 1-minute candlestick close price at the end of the 15-minute window (the top of the window) is greater than or equal to the Pyth GOLD 1-minute candlestick close price at the start of the 15-minute window (15 minutes earlier), both in USD.
4 resolution traps in the KXGOLD15M rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles β which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
Gold 15-minuteResolves YES if the Pyth GOLD 1-minute candlestick close price at the end of the 15-minute window (the top of the window) is greater than or equal to the Pyth GOLD 1-minute candlestick close price at the start of the 15-minute window (15 minutes earlier), both in USD.4 traps
- Pyth is the sole data source β not spot/futures exchanges β Settlement uses Pyth's GOLD feed exclusively; if Pyth's price diverges from CME, LBMA, or other gold benchmarks at those moments, the Pyth print governs regardless.
- 1-minute candle close, not the open or mid-window price β Only the close of the specific 1-minute candles at the start and end of the 15-minute window matter; intra-window price action is irrelevant.
- Comparison is β₯ (inclusive), so a flat print resolves YES β If both candle closes are identical, the contract resolves YES β a trader shorting the move would lose even on zero net movement.
- Cadence is every 15 minutes; no single fixed settlement time β Each contract in this series captures a different 15-minute window; the specific start and end timestamps vary per contract, so traders must verify the exact window boundary for the contract they are trading.
KXGOLD15M contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability β 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
How close our price feed is to Kalshi's settlement print
Kalshi settles KXGOLD15M on the close of a single Pyth 1-minute candle, and publishes the exact figure it used. We record our own independent read at that instant and score it against theirs. Rounded to 2 decimals, the precision this series settles at.
Every miss, listed
- lag 2026-09-30 13:30Z Β· off by 0.1
- lag 2026-09-30 13:30Z Β· off by 6.69
- lag 2026-09-30 13:15Z Β· off by 0.06
- lag 2026-09-30 13:15Z Β· off by 6.31
- large 2026-09-30 13:00Z Β· off by 0.12
- lag 2026-09-30 13:00Z Β· off by 8.63
- lag 2026-09-30 12:45Z Β· off by 1.8
- lag 2026-09-30 12:45Z Β· off by 8.9
- lag 2026-09-30 12:30Z Β· off by 0.29
- lag 2026-09-30 12:30Z Β· off by 1.94
This is a measured approximation, not the settlement feed itself. If a contract is decided by the last tick at the final decimal place, do not size it off this. Trade responsibly.
Our record on KXGOLD15M
Go deeper
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Gold 15-minute markets?
Resolves YES if the Pyth GOLD 1-minute candlestick close price at the end of the 15-minute window (the top of the window) is greater than or equal to the Pyth GOLD 1-minute candlestick close price at the start of the 15-minute window (15 minutes earlier), both in USD. That criterion is the whole contract β the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Gold 15-minute contract resolves?
We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Pyth is the sole data source β not spot/futures exchanges β Settlement uses Pyth's GOLD feed exclusively; if Pyth's price diverges from CME, LBMA, or other gold benchmarks at those moments, the Pyth print governs regardless.
What does the KXGOLD15M ticker mean?
KXGOLD15M is Kalshi's series ticker for Gold 15-minute. Individual contracts append the event and the strike β so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Gold 15-minute?
Not yet. We track KXGOLD15M settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
How accurate is your price feed against Kalshi's KXGOLD15M settlement?
Across 2620 settled instants measured so far, our independent read reproduced Kalshi's published settlement print to within one tick 44 times β mean absolute error 2.3362, worst 44.51. Kalshi settles on the close of a single Pyth 1-minute candle, and publishes the exact number it used, so this is measured against their own print, not an estimate. We started recording on 2026-09-08 and nothing before that can be reconstructed, so the sample is small and stated rather than rounded up.
This is our reading of Kalshiβs published resolution rules, not a substitute for them β read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.