How Kalshi settles 15-Minute Gold contracts
Reviewed by Benny Ricciardi
Rules last read
Settles YES when
Resolves YES if the Pyth GOLD (USD/t.oz) 1-minute candlestick close at the end of the 15-minute window is at or above the Pyth GOLD 1-minute candlestick close at the start of that same 15-minute window.
4 resolution traps in the KXGOLD15M rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles β which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
15-Minute GoldResolves YES if the Pyth GOLD (USD/t.oz) 1-minute candlestick close at the end of the 15-minute window is at or above the Pyth GOLD 1-minute candlestick close at the start of that same 15-minute window.4 traps
- Pyth is the sole data source β Settlement uses only the Pyth GOLD feed (USD/t.oz), not spot prices from any exchange or other benchmark; discrepancies between Pyth and other gold price sources are irrelevant.
- 1-minute candle close, not OHLC high/low β Only the closing print of each 1-minute candlestick is compared β intra-minute highs, lows, or opens at either boundary have no bearing on resolution.
- At-least (β₯) comparison: exact tie resolves YES β The rule requires the close at the end of the window to be at least the close at the start, so if both prints are identical the contract resolves YES, not NO.
- EST vs EDT timezone discrepancy in rules β The rules cite the opening candle at 6:30 AM EDT and the closing candle at 6:45 AM EST β these are different UTC offsets (EDT = UTCβ4, EST = UTCβ5), so traders must confirm which UTC timestamps the Pyth feed actually uses to avoid referencing the wrong candles.
KXGOLD15M contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability β 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
How close our price feed is to Kalshi's settlement print
Kalshi settles KXGOLD15M on the close of a single Pyth 1-minute candle, and publishes the exact figure it used. We record our own independent read at that instant and score it against theirs. Rounded to 2 decimals, the precision this series settles at.
Every miss, listed
- lag 2026-11-13 22:00Z Β· off by 8.25
- large 2026-11-13 21:45Z Β· off by 0.96
- lag 2026-11-13 21:45Z Β· off by 2.71
- large 2026-11-13 21:30Z Β· off by 0.05
- lag 2026-11-13 21:30Z Β· off by 2.6
- lag 2026-11-13 21:15Z Β· off by 0.03
- lag 2026-11-13 21:15Z Β· off by 3.54
- large 2026-11-13 21:00Z Β· off by 0.37
- lag 2026-11-13 21:00Z Β· off by 4.15
- large 2026-11-13 20:45Z Β· off by 0.14
This is a measured approximation, not the settlement feed itself. If a contract is decided by the last tick at the final decimal place, do not size it off this. Trade responsibly.
Our record on KXGOLD15M
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How Kalshi settles 15-Minute Gold β frequently asked
How does Kalshi settle 15-Minute Gold markets?
Resolves YES if the Pyth GOLD (USD/t.oz) 1-minute candlestick close at the end of the 15-minute window is at or above the Pyth GOLD 1-minute candlestick close at the start of that same 15-minute window. That criterion is the whole contract β the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a 15-Minute Gold contract resolves?
We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Pyth is the sole data source β Settlement uses only the Pyth GOLD feed (USD/t.oz), not spot prices from any exchange or other benchmark; discrepancies between Pyth and other gold price sources are irrelevant.
What does the KXGOLD15M ticker mean?
KXGOLD15M is Kalshi's series ticker for 15-Minute Gold. Individual contracts append the event and the strike β so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading 15-Minute Gold?
Not yet. We track KXGOLD15M settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
How accurate is your price feed against Kalshi's KXGOLD15M settlement?
Across 8304 settled instants measured so far, our independent read reproduced Kalshi's published settlement print to within one tick 182 times β mean absolute error 2.0559, worst 44.51. Kalshi settles on the close of a single Pyth 1-minute candle, and publishes the exact number it used, so this is measured against their own print, not an estimate. We started recording on 2026-09-08 and nothing before that can be reconstructed, so the sample is small and stated rather than rounded up.
This is our reading of Kalshiβs published resolution rules, not a substitute for them β read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.