Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q4 2026?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of real seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth exceeds the threshold.

• Advance Estimate only — revisions ignored — The BEA releases multiple prints (Advance, Second, Third); only the first Advance Estimate determines resolution, so a later revision crossing the threshold in either direction is irrelevant.
• Strictly greater than threshold, not equal — The rule says 'more than' the threshold, so a print landing exactly on it resolves NO, not YES.
• Real GDP, not nominal — The rule specifies real (inflation-adjusted) GDP; nominal GDP growth, which can differ significantly, is irrelevant to resolution.

These are the rules for the whole series — every contract in it settles the same way. Full KXGDP settlement rules →