KalshiMacro & economics
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in November 2026?
35c
YES · 35% implied
1K
contracts 24h
31K
open interest (contracts)
How this settles
Resolves YES if the BLS-reported 12-month CPI inflation rate for the period ending November 2026 exceeds 4.0%, using the one-decimal-place figure published by the BLS.
- One-decimal place rounding is decisive — The contract explicitly uses the BLS's rounded one-decimal figure, so an actual rate of 4.04% prints as 4.0% and resolves NO, while 4.05% prints as 4.1% and resolves YES — the rounding threshold, not the raw number, determines settlement.
- Strictly above 4.0%, not at or above — The rules say 'more than 4.0%', so a printed value of exactly 4.0% resolves NO, making the boundary asymmetric and easy to misread as a ≥ trigger.
- Initial release vs. revised print unclear — The rules cite the BLS report but don't specify whether the first release or a subsequent revision governs, which matters if the BLS revises the figure after initial publication.
Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXCPIYOY settlement rules →
24h move: +0.0c
Related Macro & economics Markets
Trade this market on Kalshi
Buy YES or NO directly on Kalshi
Compare this market on Polymarket
See if there's a price discrepancy worth trading
Get The 7 Oracles' take on this market — subscribe free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.