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NFL 2026

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KalshiMacro & economics

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in November 2026?

35c

YES · 35% implied

1K

contracts 24h

31K

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BLS-reported 12-month CPI inflation rate for the period ending November 2026 exceeds 4.0%, using the one-decimal-place figure published by the BLS.

  • One-decimal place rounding is decisive — The contract explicitly uses the BLS's rounded one-decimal figure, so an actual rate of 4.04% prints as 4.0% and resolves NO, while 4.05% prints as 4.1% and resolves YES — the rounding threshold, not the raw number, determines settlement.
  • Strictly above 4.0%, not at or above — The rules say 'more than 4.0%', so a printed value of exactly 4.0% resolves NO, making the boundary asymmetric and easy to misread as a ≥ trigger.
  • Initial release vs. revised print unclear — The rules cite the BLS report but don't specify whether the first release or a subsequent revision governs, which matters if the BLS revises the figure after initial publication.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXCPIYOY settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

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