Macro & economicsKXGDP

How Kalshi settles US GDP growth

Rules last read August 17, 2026

Settles YES when

Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of real seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth exceeds the threshold.

3 resolution traps in the KXGDP rules

The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.

US GDP growth

Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of real seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth exceeds the threshold.

3 traps

Advance Estimate only — revisions ignored — The BEA releases multiple prints (Advance, Second, Third); only the first Advance Estimate determines resolution, so a later revision crossing the threshold in either direction is irrelevant.
Strictly greater than threshold, not equal — The rule says 'more than' the threshold, so a print landing exactly on it resolves NO, not YES.
Real GDP, not nominal — The rule specifies real (inflation-adjusted) GDP; nominal GDP growth, which can differ significantly, is irrelevant to resolution.

KXGDP contracts open now

ContractYESImplied

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q3 2026?92c92%

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2026?74c74%

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q3 2026?35c35%

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q3 2026?65c65%

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q3 2026?21c21%

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026?94c94%

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q1 2027?17c17%

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026?16c16%

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q1 2027?10c10%

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q2 2027?17c17%

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026?97c97%

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q3 2026?99c99%

A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.

Our record on KXGDP

We have not graded a position on KXGDP. Rather than show a zeroed scorecard, this stays empty until there is a real one. Everything we have graded is on the track record.

Read the official KXGDP rules on Kalshi →All settlement rules →

Frequently Asked Questions

How does Kalshi settle US GDP growth markets?

Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of real seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth exceeds the threshold. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.

What can go wrong when a US GDP growth contract resolves?

We flag 3 traps in these rules. The first: Advance Estimate only — revisions ignored — The BEA releases multiple prints (Advance, Second, Third); only the first Advance Estimate determines resolution, so a later revision crossing the threshold in either direction is irrelevant.

What does the KXGDP ticker mean?

KXGDP is Kalshi's series ticker for US GDP growth. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.

Do you have a record trading US GDP growth?

Not yet. We track KXGDP settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.

This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.