How Kalshi settles US GDP growth
Rules last read
Settles YES when
The contract resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of real seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth exceeds the threshold for the named period.
3 resolution traps in the KXGDP rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
US GDP growthThe contract resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of real seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth exceeds the threshold for the named period.3 traps
- Advance Estimate only — revisions ignored — The BEA publishes subsequent Second and Third Estimates that can differ materially, but only the first (Advance) print is used for settlement, so a position can lose even if a later revision crosses the threshold.
- Strictly greater than threshold — exact hit resolves NO — The rules say 'more than' the threshold, so a print exactly equal to the threshold does not resolve YES.
- Annualized rate, not raw quarterly growth — The BEA Advance Estimate is seasonally adjusted and annualized (SAAR), so traders must compare the annualized figure to the threshold, not the raw quarter-over-quarter percentage change.
KXGDP contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXGDP
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle US GDP growth markets?
The contract resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of real seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth exceeds the threshold for the named period. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a US GDP growth contract resolves?
We flag 3 traps in these rules. The first: Advance Estimate only — revisions ignored — The BEA publishes subsequent Second and Third Estimates that can differ materially, but only the first (Advance) print is used for settlement, so a position can lose even if a later revision crosses the threshold.
What does the KXGDP ticker mean?
KXGDP is Kalshi's series ticker for US GDP growth. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading US GDP growth?
Not yet. We track KXGDP settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.