Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Sep 15, 2027 meeting?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate, as published on the Federal Reserve's official website, is strictly greater than the threshold following the settlement-date FOMC meeting.

• Strictly greater than — hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — The rule uses "greater than" (not "greater than or equal to"), so if the upper bound lands exactly at the threshold, the contract resolves NO.
• Federal Reserve's own website is the sole data source — Only the rate as published on federalreserve.gov counts; quotes from third-party sources (Bloomberg, CME, etc.) are irrelevant if they differ.
• Upper bound only — not the midpoint or lower bound — The Fed publishes a target range; only the upper bound of that range is used, not the midpoint or the effective (realized) fed funds rate.
• Rate must reflect the specific FOMC meeting outcome — The rate checked is the one published *following* the settlement-date meeting, so any rate in effect before that meeting — even on the same day — does not count.

These are the rules for the whole series — every contract in it settles the same way. Full KXFED settlement rules →