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Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures on the next FOMC decision

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15-MINUTE

Every Kalshi 15-minute window, priced against the late-flip risk

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KalshiCrypto

ETH price up in next 15 mins?

5c

YES · 5% implied

34K

contracts 24h

51K

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSDRTI ending before the later window's cutoff is at least (≥) the 60-second simple average ending before the earlier window's cutoff, both on the settlement date.

  • CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI — not spot price — Settlement uses CF Benchmarks' ETHUSDRTI (a real-time index), not any exchange's spot price or the BRTI; traders hedging with other ETH price feeds may see divergence.
  • Exact 60-second average window, not a single print — Each reference price is the simple average of sixty individual one-second ETHUSDRTI values immediately before the cutoff, so a single-second spike or dip near the boundary does not fully determine the result.
  • 'At least' means equality resolves YES — The comparison is ≥, so if both 60-second averages are identical, the contract resolves YES — a tie does not favour the NO side.
  • Cadence is every 15 minutes; cutoff times shift per contract — This is a 15-minute series; the specific before-window cutoffs vary per contract, so traders must confirm they are reading the correct contract's two cutoff times and not confusing them with an adjacent 15-minute window.

These are the rules for the whole series — every contract in it settles the same way. Full KXETH15M settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

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