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Every five minutes, Polymarket US settles one question: did bitcoin finish at or above where the window started? We logged 3,806 of those windows on the 5-Minute Board, from Oct. 22 through 4:35 p.m. ET on Nov. 4, 2026. Up settled 1,898 times, or 49.9%.
Bitcoin, ether, solana and XRP Up or Down, a new window every five minutes. Every window’s result is on the 5-Minute Board.
A new bitcoin 5-minute window closes every five minutes, on the :00, :05, :10 and so on.
Up and Down split almost exactly even
| Measure | Result |
|---|---|
| Windows settled | 3,806 |
| Finished Up | 1,898 (49.9%) |
| Finished Down | 1,908 (50.1%) |
| Period | Oct. 22 to Nov. 4, 2026 |
With 3,806 windows, the standard error on that rate is about 1.3 percentage points. A 49.9% reading can't be told apart from 50%, so this sample shows no lean in either direction.
Long runs are what a coin flip produces
| Run | Longest | Started | Runs of 5+ | Runs of 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up | 12 | Oct. 28, 3:45 a.m. ET | 65 | 7 |
| Down | 11 | Oct. 26, 11:40 a.m. ET | 72 | 7 |
A run of 12 feels like it should mean something. It's also about what chance delivers: a fair coin flipped 3,806 times has an expected longest run close to 12. We count a run as consecutive windows only, so a gap in the record breaks it.
Most windows barely move
| Move in the window | Share of windows |
|---|---|
| 5 bps or less | 54.1% |
| 10 bps or more | 21.7% |
| 25 bps or more | 3.3% |
The median move was 4.5 bps, and one window in ten moved more than 15.4 bps. At an $80,000 bitcoin, 4.5 bps is about $36. The largest move on record was 104.7 bps. These figures cover the 3,782 windows with a recorded move.
What this record doesn't tell you
It's 14 days of data, so it covers one stretch of bitcoin volatility and no more. Past windows don't price the next one, and a current run tells you nothing the even split above doesn't. For how the windows settle, see the settlement section on the 5-Minute Board. For what a round trip costs, see the fee math.
The board updates every window, so the live version of these numbers is always there.
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