June 11 – July 19, 2026 · USA · Mexico · Canada

Your 2026 World Cup, decoded.

48 teams. 104 matches. We played the whole tournament out 10,000 times so you don't have to guess. Pick your path below — every team, every group, every edge, free.

The model's favorites, live

Full ranking →

SIMSee who winsAll 48 teams ranked by our 10K Monte Carlo model 48 TEAMSFollow my countryProfile, odds, and tactical read for every squad GROUPSRead the groups12 groups, qualification paths, who advances MATCHESPreview the matchesFixture-by-fixture previews with model splits ODDSCheck the oddsLive outright-winner board from the markets PROFind the top scorerGolden Boot projections — GPG rates + value plays

For the edge hunters

Where the market is wrong.

We flag every spot our simulation disagrees with Kalshi and Polymarket by 8 points or more. That gap is the play.

Top mispricings

Sim vs. market, ≥8pp gaps

Cross-platform arb

Kalshi vs Polymarket gaps

How the sim works

Methodology + key findings

Trade the World Cup on Kalshi →

Read the takes

France: the market surge behind the favorite→Brazil under Ancelotti — what the markets see→The complete World Cup prediction-markets guide→Soccer on prediction markets, explained→

Quick answers

Who is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup?

Our 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation updates the favorite live — see the full ranking on the simulation results page. Spain, France, England, Argentina, and Brazil lead the model.

When and where is the 2026 World Cup?

June 11 to July 19, 2026, co-hosted by the USA, Mexico, and Canada — 48 teams, 104 matches.

Where can I trade the World Cup?

On prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. We surface free team profiles plus live mispricings between our simulation and the market price.

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