June 11 – July 19, 2026 · USA · Mexico · Canada

Your 2026 World Cup, decoded.

48 teams. 104 matches. We played the whole tournament out 10,000 times so you don't have to guess. Pick your path below — every team, every group, every edge, free.

The model's favorites, live

Full ranking →

SIMSee who winsAll 48 teams ranked by our 10K Monte Carlo model 48 TEAMSFollow my countryProfile, odds, and tactical read for every squad GROUPSRead the groups12 groups, qualification paths, who advances MATCHESPreview the matchesFixture-by-fixture previews with model splits ODDSCheck the oddsHow the final outright-winner board finished PROFind the top scorerGolden Boot projections — GPG rates + value plays

For the edge hunters

Where the market is wrong.

We flag every spot our simulation disagrees with Kalshi and Polymarket by 8 points or more. That gap is the play.

Top mispricings

Sim vs. market, ≥8pp gaps

Cross-platform arb

Kalshi vs Polymarket gaps

How the sim works

Methodology + key findings

Trade the World Cup on Kalshi →

Read the takes

France: the market surge behind the favorite→Brazil under Ancelotti — what the markets see→The complete World Cup prediction-markets guide→Soccer on prediction markets, explained→

Quick answers

Who won the 2026 World Cup?

Spain won the 2026 World Cup, beating Argentina 2-0 in the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium. Both finalists sat inside our pre-tournament model top group; the full ranking is on the simulation results page.

When and where was the 2026 World Cup?

June 11 to July 19, 2026, co-hosted by the USA, Mexico, and Canada — 48 teams, 104 matches. The next World Cup is in 2030 (Spain, Portugal, and Morocco).

Where can I trade the World Cup?

On prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. We surface free team profiles plus the mispricings between our simulation and the market price — and champion contracts for 2030 open well ahead of the tournament.

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