March Madness Prediction Markets: Duke is not winning this tournament

[music] What up traders? You know what time it is. It's time to build your portfolio with another profitable prophecy. [music] I am your host, the spitting statistician Dane Martinez, one of the seven oracles [music] helping you see into the future. And if you look at the calendar, it is March and the madness is about to begin. If you look on over at some of those prediction markets, I am going to fade the number one overall seed. They will not be ultimately cutting down the Nets for one shining moment. I am taking out the ACC champion number one team in the nation, the Duke Blue Devils. [music] Yes, they are a good team, but they should not be between 20 and 25% in these prediction markets. I say take the no on the Duke Blue Devils for about one and a quarter times your money. Yes, they went 32-2, but if you look at the bracket, there are landmines left, right, and center in their region, the Eastern region, if they were to just get through that region and get to the final four. Listen to the murderers row of coaches they may have to face. First of all, in the Sweet 16, we're talking either St. John's or Kansas. St. John's is a team that won 28 games with Rick Patino as their coach. If it was Kansas, we're talking Bill Self and one of the top three picks in the NBA draft coming up in Darren Peterson. If they get past that round to get to the Elite 8, we're talking about Yukon with one of the best coaches in the country in Dan Hurley and a Yukon team that won 29 games. Or it could be Michigan State and Tom ISO. Tom and Duke have faced each other a ton of times in the tournament. Most notably, ISO and Michigan State beat Duke in 2019 68-67 in the Elite 8. But here's the other thing. Not only is their road tough, not only are the opponents high quality in a big-time Eastern region, but the Duke starting point guard, Caleb Foster, is out after he broke his leg or broke his foot on March 7th in an ACC tournament game against UNC. Right. The other thing, their starting center is also out. Sophomore Patrick Nongba is also banged up. Their head coach um John Sh has saying they are starting to use and uh use lineups that they have had in games that they've never even practiced with. So forget about just them having a tough road. Two starters are down and Caleb Foster the word is he is out for quote unquote the foreseeable future. Also since 2004 when they started implementing kind of this number one overall seed that was 20 2122 years ago the number one overall seed has won the tournament five times. However it has happened only once in the last 13 or 14 years. Yukon did in fact win it as the 20's number one overall seed in 2024. But before then the last time it happened was Louisville all the way back in 2013. So, it stands to reason that at least over the last decade plus, the number one overall seed does not win the tournament. Here's the other thing. If you know you get bad word on an injury for one of those players or if they're in a close game or down, you can always just cash out when the numbers change a little bit. So, getting this position on the no side, I think, is the prudent way to go. So, when it comes to March Madness, we are fading the favorite, saying no on the number one overall seed, Duke Blue Devils. I personally like Michigan and Arizona better. Those are two other one seeds that I actually think are in better shape to cut down the Nets. Now, [music] the Oracle has spoken. Go and get it now before the numbers move.