Play of the Day

The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Spain and 0.92 for Belgium — 2.84 total, a third of a goal hotter than the France–Morocco grind. Over 1.5 sits at 79.4% and over 2.5 prices at 54.1% fair (~54¢). This is a two-way tie, not a low-event block: Belgium put four past the USA and needed extra time to shake Senegal, and BTTS lives at 53.1%. The hot scorelines — 1-1 (12.1%), 2-0 Spain (10.8%), 2-1 Spain (9.9%) — all clear or sit right at the number. Take the over only where the live Kalshi line trades below ~54¢; size it quarter-Kelly. Pairs naturally with Spain in regulation on the Combo Edge Builder — price the correlation, since both legs lean on the same Spain-controls-a-goals-game script.