PMP · MMAUFC Fight Night
Main Event · Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot26-4 · #8
VSQuillan Salkilld12-1 · #12
UFC · MMA
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Saturday, August 8, 2026 · main card 8:00 PM EDT · Meta APEX · Paramount+
The 7 OraclesPMP · MMAUFC Fight NightSaturday, August 8, 2026Quick Answer
As of August 6, 2026, the market favors Quillan Salkilld in the Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld lightweight main event at UFC Fight Night (Saturday, August 8, 2026). Live win probabilities and American odds for all 11 bouts are in the tale of the tape below.
Why you can trade this card
UFC Fight Night cards trade on Kalshi — a CFTC-regulated exchange open in all 50 states, no local sportsbook account required — and on Polymarket, which is open to US traders. Two venues, one card, two different order books.
What the market says
The full card at a glance — the market favorite, cross-platform price gap, method lean and liquidity for every bout. Market-derived, not a pick.
Sort:
| Bout | Market favorite | Cross-platform gap | Method lean | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld Main Event · Lightweight | Quillan Salkilld58%-138 | 1.0ppALIGNED | — | $45K |
Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo Co-Main Event · Lightweight | Diego Ferreira63%-170 | 1.0ppALIGNED | — | $8KLow |
Darren Elkins vs Yadier del Valle Main Card · Featherweight | Yadier del Valle87%-669 | 1.0ppALIGNED | — | $14K |
Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara Main Card · Women's Strawweight | Alexia Thainara72%-257 | 1.0ppALIGNED | — | $13K |
Billy Ray Goff vs Ty Miller Main Card · Welterweight | Ty Miller78%-355 | 2.0ppALIGNED | — | $13K |
Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat Prelims · Heavyweight | Steven Asplund75%-300 | 2.0ppALIGNED | — | $5KLow |
Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno Lopes Prelims · Light Heavyweight | Diyar Nurgozhay60%-150 | 1.0ppALIGNED | — | $7KLow |
Louie Sutherland vs Jose Montanha da Silva Prelims · Heavyweight | Louie Sutherland62%-163 | 11.0ppARB | — | $3KLow |
Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda Prelims · Lightweight | Manoel Sousa73%-270 | 1.0ppALIGNED | — | $8KLow |
Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas Prelims · Featherweight | Miles Johns59%-144 | 0.0ppALIGNED | — | $7KLow |
Juliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira Prelims · Women's Flyweight | Juliana Miller78%-355 | 2.0ppALIGNED | — | $2KLow |
Market-derived signals, not a pick. A position can settle at $0 — informational only, trade responsibly.
Main card
PMP · MMAUFC Fight Night
Main Event · Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot26-4 · #8
VSQuillan Salkilld12-1 · #12
PMP · MMAUFC Fight Night
Co-Main Event · Lightweight
Diego Ferreira19-7
VSBilly Quarantillo18-7
PMP · MMAUFC Fight Night
Main Card · Featherweight
Darren Elkins29-12
VSYadier del Valle10-1
PMP · MMAUFC Fight Night
Main Card · Women's Strawweight
Amanda Lemos15-6-1 · #8
VSAlexia Thainara14-1 · #12
PMP · MMAUFC Fight Night
Main Card · Welterweight
Billy Ray Goff9-4
VSTy Miller7-0
Prelims
PMP · MMAUFC Fight Night
Prelims · Heavyweight
Steven Asplund7-2
VSGuilherme Pat6-1
PMP · MMAUFC Fight Night
Prelims · Light Heavyweight
Diyar Nurgozhay11-2
VSBruno Lopes14-3
PMP · MMAUFC Fight Night
Prelims · Heavyweight
Louie Sutherland11-5
VSJose Montanha da Silva6-1
PMP · MMAUFC Fight Night
Prelims · Lightweight
Manoel Sousa14-1
VSRichie Miranda13-1
PMP · MMAUFC Fight Night
Prelims · Featherweight
Miles Johns15-5
VSJessie Rosas8-1
PMP · MMAUFC Fight Night
Prelims · Women's Flyweight
Juliana Miller4-4
VSRavena Oliveira7-4-1
The prediction-market read
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld brings 11 bouts to Meta APEX in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday, August 8, 2026, live on Paramount+. The card is headlined by Mateusz Gamrot (26-4, ranked #8) against Quillan Salkilld (12-1, #12) in the lightweight division.
The tale of the tape above carries the live market read for 11 of 11bouts — each fighter's market-implied win probability in cents and comma-free American odds, with the market favorite tinted green. Prices come from Kalshi's combat-fight contracts, with a Polymarket fallback where PFL fights trade.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
UFC Fight Night — frequently asked
Who is favored at UFC Fight Night?
The market favors Quillan Salkilld in the Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld main event. The tale of the tape above lists the live market-implied win probability and American odds for every bout on the card; the favorite is tinted green.
How can I watch UFC Fight Night?
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld streams on Paramount+. Prelims start 5:00 PM EDT, with the main card at 8:00 PM EDT on Saturday, August 8, 2026. While you watch, the live market read for every bout — market-implied win probability and comma-free American odds — is on this page the moment UFC Fight Night's contracts list.
Can you trade UFC Fight Night fights on Kalshi or Polymarket?
Yes — these are prediction markets, not a sportsbook. UFC cards carry live markets on both venues: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available to traders in all 50 states, and Polymarket is open to US traders too. We lead with Kalshi for the broader US-listed slate and the deeper per-market book. You take a yes/no position on a fighter in a contract that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where is UFC Fight Night?
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld takes place Saturday, August 8, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, NV, broadcast on Paramount+. Main card starts 8:00 PM EDT.
How do prediction-market MMA odds work?
Each fighter's price is the market-implied probability they win, quoted in cents (a 69¢ contract implies a 69% chance) and shown here as comma-free American odds. Unlike a sportsbook line, the contract settles at $1 if the fighter wins and $0 if they lose, so the price IS the probability.
More MMA predictions
Every card we cover is indexed on the MMA predictions hub, alongside the graded record for every bout that has settled.
One email 48h before every card we read, with the full market breakdown. Nothing else.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.