Will there be more than 8 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?

How this settles

Resolves YES if more than the threshold number of Category 1-or-above hurricanes occur in the named Pacific basin (Central or Eastern) between May 15 and December 1 of the contract year, as confirmed by the National Weather Service or an equivalent national weather service.

• Strictly greater than threshold, not equal — Hitting exactly the threshold count (5 for Central Pacific, 9 for Eastern Pacific) resolves NO — the storm count must exceed it, so a trader needs one more storm than the threshold to win the position.
• NWS 'or equivalent' leaves source ambiguous — The rules permit any equivalent national weather service, so final count could come from CPHC (Central Pacific Hurricane Center) or EPAC records rather than NWS directly, and any discrepancy between agencies in borderline cases affects resolution.
• Season boundary dates are inclusive — verify edge storms — A storm that forms or peaks exactly on May 15 or December 1 counts, so storms at the boundary of the season window matter and traders should confirm whether a named storm on those dates is included in the official count.
• Basin boundary: Central vs. Eastern Pacific is strictly defined — Storms that cross the 140°W longitude line (the boundary between Eastern and Central Pacific basins) mid-life could be counted in either or both basins depending on NWS/CPHC attribution, affecting whether they contribute to the correct contract's tally.

These are the rules for the whole series — every contract in it settles the same way. Full KXHURRICANE settlement rules →