Will there be more than 8 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the number of hurricanes meeting the specified category threshold in the named Pacific basin, during the May 15–December 1 season, strictly exceeds the threshold count, as confirmed by the National Weather Service (or equivalent).

• Strictly greater than — hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — Each variant uses "more than" the threshold count, so a storm total exactly equal to the threshold (e.g. exactly 1, 3, or 8) does NOT resolve YES — a trader holding a long position needs one additional storm beyond the stated number.
• Basin boundary: Central Pacific vs. Eastern Pacific are distinct — Variants 1 & 2 count only storms in the Central Pacific basin, while Variant 3 counts only the Eastern Pacific basin; a storm that crosses between basins mid-life may or may not count depending on where it achieves hurricane status, which the NWS tracks separately (CPHC vs. NHC jurisdiction).
• "Or equivalent national weather service" leaves source ambiguous — The rules permit resolution via a non-NWS authority, meaning a trader cannot assume the official NWS/CPHC or NHC record is the sole arbiter — post-season best-track revisions from an equivalent agency could change storm counts and flip resolution.
• Category threshold applies at any point during storm's life — The rules do not specify whether a storm must reach the category threshold while inside the basin; if a storm intensifies to the required category outside the basin boundary, it may not qualify, making the exact moment and location of peak intensity critical to the count.

These are the rules for the whole series — every contract in it settles the same way. Full KXHURRICANE settlement rules →