Settles YES when
Resolves YES if the number of hurricanes meeting the specified category threshold in the named Pacific basin, during the May 15–December 1 season, strictly exceeds the threshold count, as confirmed by the National Weather Service (or equivalent).
4 resolution traps in the KXHURRICANE rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
HurricanesResolves YES if the number of hurricanes meeting the specified category threshold in the named Pacific basin, during the May 15–December 1 season, strictly exceeds the threshold count, as confirmed by the National Weather Service (or equivalent).4 traps
- Strictly greater than — hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — Each variant uses "more than" the threshold count, so a storm total exactly equal to the threshold (e.g. exactly 1, 3, or 8) does NOT resolve YES — a trader holding a long position needs one additional storm beyond the stated number.
- Basin boundary: Central Pacific vs. Eastern Pacific are distinct — Variants 1 & 2 count only storms in the Central Pacific basin, while Variant 3 counts only the Eastern Pacific basin; a storm that crosses between basins mid-life may or may not count depending on where it achieves hurricane status, which the NWS tracks separately (CPHC vs. NHC jurisdiction).
- "Or equivalent national weather service" leaves source ambiguous — The rules permit resolution via a non-NWS authority, meaning a trader cannot assume the official NWS/CPHC or NHC record is the sole arbiter — post-season best-track revisions from an equivalent agency could change storm counts and flip resolution.
- Category threshold applies at any point during storm's life — The rules do not specify whether a storm must reach the category threshold while inside the basin; if a storm intensifies to the required category outside the basin boundary, it may not qualify, making the exact moment and location of peak intensity critical to the count.
KXHURRICANE contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXHURRICANE
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Hurricanes markets?
Resolves YES if the number of hurricanes meeting the specified category threshold in the named Pacific basin, during the May 15–December 1 season, strictly exceeds the threshold count, as confirmed by the National Weather Service (or equivalent). That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Hurricanes contract resolves?
We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Strictly greater than — hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — Each variant uses "more than" the threshold count, so a storm total exactly equal to the threshold (e.g. exactly 1, 3, or 8) does NOT resolve YES — a trader holding a long position needs one additional storm beyond the stated number.
What does the KXHURRICANE ticker mean?
KXHURRICANE is Kalshi's series ticker for Hurricanes. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Hurricanes?
Not yet. We track KXHURRICANE settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.