How Kalshi settles Hurricanes
Rules last read
Settles YES when
This contract resolves YES if more than 1 hurricane (Category 1 or above) forms in the named basin during the defined season window, as confirmed by the designated weather authority.
4 resolution traps in the KXHURRICANE rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
HurricanesThis contract resolves YES if more than 1 hurricane (Category 1 or above) forms in the named basin during the defined season window, as confirmed by the designated weather authority.4 traps
- Strictly greater than threshold, not equal — "More than 1" means exactly 1 hurricane resolves NO — the threshold is not inclusive, so a trader holding a YES position needs at least 2 confirmed hurricanes.
- Central Pacific basin only, not Eastern or Western — The Central Pacific is a distinct, geographically bounded basin; storms that form in or cross into the Eastern or Western Pacific do not count unless they are active as hurricanes within the Central Pacific zone.
- "National Weather Service or equivalent" source ambiguity — The rules allow an unspecified "equivalent" authority, leaving open which agency's official count governs if agencies disagree on storm classification or count.
- Date boundary inclusivity unspecified — It is unclear whether storms that form on exactly May 15 or December 1 are counted, which could be decisive if a qualifying storm occurs on either boundary date.
KXHURRICANE contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXHURRICANE
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Hurricanes markets?
This contract resolves YES if more than 1 hurricane (Category 1 or above) forms in the named basin during the defined season window, as confirmed by the designated weather authority. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Hurricanes contract resolves?
We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Strictly greater than threshold, not equal — "More than 1" means exactly 1 hurricane resolves NO — the threshold is not inclusive, so a trader holding a YES position needs at least 2 confirmed hurricanes.
What does the KXHURRICANE ticker mean?
KXHURRICANE is Kalshi's series ticker for Hurricanes. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Hurricanes?
Not yet. We track KXHURRICANE settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.