Skip to content
FED DESK

Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures on the next FOMC decision

Fed Rate Tracker · live

15-MINUTE

Every Kalshi 15-minute window, priced against the late-flip risk

Bitcoin · gold · silver · oil

MIDTERMS

Every 2026 race priced on Kalshi and Polymarket

Senate · House · governors

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

SILVER EDGE

Options vs. Kalshi on weekly silver brackets

KalshiCrypto

Bitcoin price range on Oct 30, 2026?

8c

YES · 8% implied

522

contracts 24h

522

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Each contract resolves on the simple average of the 60 one-second prints of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in the minute before the top of the hour: YES if that average is above, below, or inside the contract's price range (depending on the variant). A new event settles every hour, around the clock, and the contract text names the hour.

  • BRTI 60-second simple average, not spot price — Resolution uses the arithmetic mean of exactly 60 one-second BRTI values ending at the top of the settlement hour — a single instantaneous Bitcoin price at that moment is irrelevant and could differ materially from the average.
  • Strict boundary comparisons — endpoints matter — Variant 1 requires strictly above the threshold (so hitting it exactly resolves NO), Variant 2 requires strictly below its threshold (same risk), and Variant 3 uses an inclusive range up to x.99 — a trader must check whether the averaged value clears the boundary strictly or lands exactly on it.
  • Every hour is its own event — check the hour and the timezone — Events settle hourly and the contract text names the hour in Eastern time; any clock or feed displaying UTC or another timezone could cause a trader to misidentify the relevant 60-second window.
  • CF Benchmarks BRTI is the sole data source — Only CF Benchmarks' official BRTI publication governs resolution — prices from other exchanges, aggregators, or index providers (e.g., CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate) are irrelevant even if they show different values at the same moment.

These are the rules for the whole series — every contract in it settles the same way. Full KXBTC settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

Related Crypto Markets

Trade this market on Kalshi

Buy YES or NO directly on Kalshi

Trade on Kalshi →

Compare this market on Polymarket

See if there's a price discrepancy worth trading

Compare on Polymarket →

Get The 7 Oracles' take on this market — subscribe free

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.