Publiccategory commodity · since May 2026
Silver Edge
SLV options chain fused with Kalshi silver-price markets. Flags a position when the options-implied probability diverges from the Kalshi yes-price; every call is graded on the record below.
400 picks logged · 399 settled · scorecards as of 2026-08-27
Hit rate (all-time)
58.9%
Wilson 95% CI 54.0%–63.6%
ROI @ par (all-time)
+52.4%
Brier (all-time)
0.144
vs. baseline 0.157
Picks (all-time)
400
399 settled
Max drawdown (all-time)
+2753.9%
ROI at par assumes a fill at the limit price the tool quoted — methodology.
Recent settled picks
last 30 settled outcomes · open positions are not shown
| Picked | Market | Side | Pred | Mkt | PnL | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG2117 @ 61.99 kalshi | NO | 85% | 93% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-17 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG2117 @ 63.99 kalshi | NO | 71% | 78% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-13 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG1417 @ 63.99 kalshi | NO | 66% | 74% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-12 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG1417 @ 63.99 kalshi | NO | 76% | 85% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-11 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG1417 @ 63.99 kalshi | NO | 53% | 61% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-10 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG1417 @ 61.99 kalshi | NO | 66% | 76% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-06 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 58.99 kalshi | NO | 79% | 88% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-05 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 59.99 kalshi | YES | 78% | 70% | +0.44 | won |
| 2026-08-04 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 54.99 kalshi | NO | 90% | 96% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-04 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 55.99 kalshi | NO | 83% | 92% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-04 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 56.99 kalshi | NO | 74% | 81% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-04 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 57.99 kalshi | NO | 64% | 78% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-04 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 58.99 kalshi | NO | 53% | 63% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-04 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 59.99 kalshi | YES | 41% | 34% | +1.99 | won |
| 2026-08-04 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 60.99 kalshi | NO | 26% | 33% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 52.99 kalshi | NO | 88% | 94% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 53.99 kalshi | NO | 80% | 89% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 56.99 kalshi | NO | 43% | 54% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 57.99 kalshi | NO | 30% | 39% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 58.99 kalshi | NO | 20% | 30% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-31 | Silver KXSILVERW-26JUL3117 @ 57.99 kalshi | NO | 15% | 24% | +0.31 | won |
| 2026-07-30 | Silver KXSILVERW-26JUL3117 @ 54.99 kalshi | YES | 98% | 93% | +0.08 | won |
| 2026-07-30 | Silver KXSILVERW-26JUL3117 @ 55.99 kalshi | NO | 82% | 88% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-30 | Silver KXSILVERW-26JUL3117 @ 59.99 kalshi | YES | 17% | 12% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-29 | Silver KXSILVERW-26JUL3117 @ 54.99 kalshi | NO | 75% | 83% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-29 | Silver KXSILVERW-26JUL3117 @ 55.99 kalshi | NO | 62% | 68% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-29 | Silver KXSILVERW-26JUL3117 @ 56.99 kalshi | NO | 48% | 55% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-29 | Silver KXSILVERW-26JUL3117 @ 57.99 kalshi | NO | 29% | 41% | +0.68 | won |
| 2026-07-29 | Silver KXSILVERW-26JUL3117 @ 58.99 kalshi | NO | 19% | 27% | +0.36 | won |
| 2026-07-28 | Silver KXSILVERW-26JUL3117 @ 52.99 kalshi | NO | 88% | 97% | -1.00 | lost |
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How these numbers are computed
Brier score, Wilson 95% confidence interval, ROI at par, and regime tags are computed from the canonical pick log + settle tables on every nightly refresh. Voids are excluded from accuracy metrics. Sample-size badges fire at 30 and 100 settled picks.
Read the full methodology →