Publiccategory commodity · since May 2026
Silver Edge
SLV options chain fused with Kalshi silver-price markets. Flags a position when the options-implied probability diverges from the Kalshi yes-price; every call is graded on the record below.
3 picks logged · 3 settled · scorecards as of 2026-10-12
Hit rate (all-time)
33.3%
Wilson 95% CI 6.2%–79.2%
ROI @ par (all-time)
-47.5%
Brier (all-time)
0.238
vs. baseline 0.174
Picks (all-time)
3
3 settled
Max drawdown (all-time)
+200.0%
ROI at par assumes a fill at the limit price the tool quoted — methodology.
Recent settled picks
last 30 settled outcomes · open positions are not shown
| Picked | Market | Side | Pred | Mkt | PnL | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Silver KXSILVERD-26OCT0817 @ 59.00 kalshi | YES | 71% | 64% | +0.57 | won |
| 2026-10-06 | Silver KXSILVERD-26OCT0617 @ 61.00 kalshi | NO | 39% | 53% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-10-05 | Silver KXSILVERD-26OCT0517 @ 61.25 kalshi | YES | 50% | 41% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-10-01 | Silver KXSILVERD-26OCT0117 @ 61.75 kalshi | YES | 24% | 17% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-30 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP3017 @ 61.50 kalshi | YES | 26% | 18% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-29 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP2917 @ 60.25 kalshi | NO | 77% | 90% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-28 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP2817 @ 62.00 kalshi | YES | 27% | 20% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-25 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP2817 @ 65.00 kalshi | YES | 30% | 20% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-24 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP2417 @ 64.00 kalshi | YES | 33% | 23% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-23 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP2317 @ 64.00 kalshi | YES | 99% | 86% | +0.16 | won |
| 2026-09-22 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP2217 @ 65.75 kalshi | YES | 60% | 46% | +1.17 | won |
| 2026-09-21 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP2117 @ 66.50 kalshi | YES | 25% | 17% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-18 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP2117 @ 67.50 kalshi | YES | 32% | 23% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-17 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP1717 @ 66.00 kalshi | YES | 36% | 27% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-16 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP1617 @ 64.25 kalshi | YES | 69% | 60% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-15 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP1517 @ 64.25 kalshi | YES | 27% | 17% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-14 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP1417 @ 62.25 kalshi | NO | 79% | 92% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-11 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP1417 @ 66.75 kalshi | YES | 21% | 13% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-09 | Silver KXSILVERD-26SEP0917 @ 67.75 kalshi | YES | 45% | 36% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-03 | Silver KXSILVERW-26SEP0417 @ 63.99 kalshi | NO | 79% | 93% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-28 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG2817 @ 68.99 kalshi | YES | 99% | 91% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-25 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG2817 @ 66.99 kalshi | NO | 56% | 69% | +2.23 | won |
| 2026-08-18 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG2117 @ 61.99 kalshi | NO | 85% | 93% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-17 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG2117 @ 63.99 kalshi | NO | 71% | 78% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-13 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG1417 @ 63.99 kalshi | NO | 66% | 74% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-12 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG1417 @ 63.99 kalshi | NO | 76% | 85% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-11 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG1417 @ 63.99 kalshi | NO | 53% | 61% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-10 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG1417 @ 61.99 kalshi | NO | 66% | 76% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-06 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 58.99 kalshi | NO | 79% | 88% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-05 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG0717 @ 59.99 kalshi | YES | 78% | 70% | +0.44 | won |
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How these numbers are computed
Brier score, Wilson 95% confidence interval, ROI at par, and regime tags are computed from the canonical pick log + settle tables on every nightly refresh. Voids are excluded from accuracy metrics. Sample-size badges fire at 30 and 100 settled picks.
Read the full methodology →