Publiccategory commodity · since May 2026
Gold Edge
GLD options chain fused with Kalshi gold-price markets. Same engine as Silver Edge, on the gold underlying.
1 picks logged · 1 settled · scorecards as of 2026-10-12
Hit rate (all-time)
100.0%
Wilson 95% CI 20.6%–100.0%
ROI @ par (all-time)
+88.7%
Brier (all-time)
0.151
vs. baseline 0.221
Picks (all-time)
1
1 settled
Max drawdown (all-time)
+0.0%
ROI at par assumes a fill at the limit price the tool quoted — methodology.
Recent settled picks
last 30 settled outcomes · open positions are not shown
| Picked | Market | Side | Pred | Mkt | PnL | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Gold KXGOLDD-26OCT0717 @ 4102.00 kalshi | YES | 61% | 53% | +0.89 | won |
| 2026-10-01 | Gold KXGOLDD-26OCT0117 @ 4187.00 kalshi | YES | 23% | 14% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-30 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP3017 @ 4171.00 kalshi | YES | 32% | 25% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-29 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP2917 @ 4140.00 kalshi | NO | 79% | 94% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-28 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP2817 @ 4111.00 kalshi | NO | 60% | 73% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-25 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP2817 @ 4321.00 kalshi | YES | 32% | 23% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-24 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP2417 @ 4288.00 kalshi | YES | 22% | 14% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-23 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP2317 @ 4255.00 kalshi | YES | 99% | 87% | +0.15 | won |
| 2026-09-22 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP2217 @ 4325.00 kalshi | YES | 67% | 55% | +0.82 | won |
| 2026-09-21 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP2117 @ 4358.00 kalshi | YES | 27% | 19% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-18 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP2117 @ 4408.00 kalshi | YES | 29% | 20% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-17 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP1717 @ 4396.00 kalshi | YES | 29% | 20% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-16 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP1617 @ 4338.00 kalshi | YES | 60% | 51% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-15 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP1517 @ 4308.00 kalshi | YES | 38% | 27% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-11 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP1417 @ 4440.00 kalshi | YES | 34% | 24% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-10 | Gold KXGOLDD-26SEP1017 @ 4390.00 kalshi | YES | 37% | 27% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-09-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26SEP0417 @ 4548.99 kalshi | YES | 23% | 13% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-28 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG2817 @ 4496.99 kalshi | YES | 96% | 89% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-24 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG2817 @ 4716.99 kalshi | YES | 41% | 28% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-20 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG2117 @ 4415.99 kalshi | NO | 75% | 84% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-19 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG2117 @ 4515.99 kalshi | YES | 26% | 17% | +5.06 | won |
| 2026-08-18 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG2117 @ 4335.99 kalshi | NO | 70% | 78% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-10 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG1417 @ 4289.99 kalshi | NO | 58% | 66% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-07 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4284.99 kalshi | YES | 99% | 92% | +0.09 | won |
| 2026-08-06 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4304.99 kalshi | YES | 33% | 25% | +3.08 | won |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 3944.99 kalshi | NO | 74% | 81% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 3964.99 kalshi | NO | 67% | 77% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 3984.99 kalshi | NO | 59% | 69% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4004.99 kalshi | NO | 50% | 61% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4024.99 kalshi | NO | 42% | 55% | -1.00 | lost |
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How these numbers are computed
Brier score, Wilson 95% confidence interval, ROI at par, and regime tags are computed from the canonical pick log + settle tables on every nightly refresh. Voids are excluded from accuracy metrics. Sample-size badges fire at 30 and 100 settled picks.
Read the full methodology →