Publiccategory commodity · since May 2026
Gold Edge
GLD options chain fused with Kalshi gold-price markets. Same engine as Silver Edge, on the gold underlying.
492 picks logged · 491 settled · scorecards as of 2026-08-27
Hit rate (all-time)
61.9%
Wilson 95% CI 57.5%–66.1%
ROI @ par (all-time)
+24.7%
Brier (all-time)
0.158
vs. baseline 0.163
Picks (all-time)
492
491 settled
Max drawdown (all-time)
+4630.3%
ROI at par assumes a fill at the limit price the tool quoted — methodology.
Recent settled picks
last 30 settled outcomes · open positions are not shown
| Picked | Market | Side | Pred | Mkt | PnL | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG2117 @ 4415.99 kalshi | NO | 75% | 84% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-19 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG2117 @ 4515.99 kalshi | YES | 26% | 17% | +5.06 | won |
| 2026-08-18 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG2117 @ 4335.99 kalshi | NO | 70% | 78% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-10 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG1417 @ 4289.99 kalshi | NO | 58% | 66% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-07 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4284.99 kalshi | YES | 99% | 92% | +0.09 | won |
| 2026-08-06 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4304.99 kalshi | YES | 33% | 25% | +3.08 | won |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 3944.99 kalshi | NO | 74% | 81% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 3964.99 kalshi | NO | 67% | 77% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 3984.99 kalshi | NO | 59% | 69% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4004.99 kalshi | NO | 50% | 61% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4024.99 kalshi | NO | 42% | 55% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4044.99 kalshi | NO | 34% | 47% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4064.99 kalshi | NO | 27% | 40% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4104.99 kalshi | NO | 15% | 25% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4124.99 kalshi | NO | 11% | 19% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4144.99 kalshi | NO | 7% | 14% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-08-03 | Gold KXGOLDW-26AUG0717 @ 4164.99 kalshi | NO | 5% | 14% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-31 | Gold KXGOLDW-26JUL3117 @ 3988.99 kalshi | YES | 95% | 90% | +0.12 | won |
| 2026-07-31 | Gold KXGOLDW-26JUL3117 @ 4028.99 kalshi | NO | 54% | 61% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-31 | Gold KXGOLDW-26JUL3117 @ 4048.99 kalshi | NO | 25% | 37% | +0.57 | won |
| 2026-07-31 | Gold KXGOLDW-26JUL3117 @ 4068.99 kalshi | NO | 7% | 14% | +0.16 | won |
| 2026-07-30 | Gold KXGOLDW-26JUL3117 @ 4028.99 kalshi | NO | 73% | 83% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-30 | Gold KXGOLDW-26JUL3117 @ 4048.99 kalshi | NO | 62% | 70% | +2.33 | won |
| 2026-07-30 | Gold KXGOLDW-26JUL3117 @ 4068.99 kalshi | NO | 51% | 58% | +1.38 | won |
| 2026-07-29 | Gold KXGOLDW-26JUL3117 @ 3928.99 kalshi | NO | 79% | 85% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-29 | Gold KXGOLDW-26JUL3117 @ 3948.99 kalshi | NO | 72% | 80% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-29 | Gold KXGOLDW-26JUL3117 @ 3968.99 kalshi | NO | 65% | 71% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-29 | Gold KXGOLDW-26JUL3117 @ 3988.99 kalshi | NO | 56% | 64% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-29 | Gold KXGOLDW-26JUL3117 @ 4008.99 kalshi | NO | 48% | 57% | -1.00 | lost |
| 2026-07-29 | Gold KXGOLDW-26JUL3117 @ 4028.99 kalshi | NO | 39% | 53% | -1.00 | lost |
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How these numbers are computed
Brier score, Wilson 95% confidence interval, ROI at par, and regime tags are computed from the canonical pick log + settle tables on every nightly refresh. Voids are excluded from accuracy metrics. Sample-size badges fire at 30 and 100 settled picks.
Read the full methodology →