Kalshi vs Polymarket US — Premier League Prices, Leg by Leg
Kalshi and Polymarket US both list every Premier League fixture as three contracts — home, draw, away — and they are separate exchanges, so the same fixture is priced twice. Below is each upcoming fixture with both venues side by side, compared after each venue’s own trading fee, with the cheaper leg marked and the all-in cost of a complete set in the corner. Every Polymarket price here is Polymarket US, the exchange a US trader actually reaches, not the international book.
Kalshi ✕ Polymarket US, fixture by fixture
Matchweek 4 · Sep 12–14
Newcastle vs Hull CityPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Tottenham vs Aston VillaPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Coventry vs BrightonPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Tottenham vs EvertonPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Chelsea vs Hull CityPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Liverpool vs FulhamPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Brighton vs ArsenalPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Brentford vs ChelseaPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Aston Villa vs Nottingham ForestPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Bournemouth vs BrentfordPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich TownPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Sunderland vs ArsenalPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Manchester United vs Manchester CityPremier League · match result · best ask per leg
Leeds United vs NewcastlePremier League · match result · best ask per legEverton vs Ipswich TownPremier League · match result · best ask per legNottingham Forest vs CoventryPremier League · match result · best ask per leg16 fixtures priced on both venues · updated every 15 minutes
How we compute the gap
For each Premier League fixture listed on both exchanges, we read the best ask on all three legs — home, draw, away — on Kalshi and on Polymarket US, add each venue's own trading fee to each leg, and mark the venue that is cheaper after fees. The corner number is the all-in cost of a complete set: one contract on each of the three outcomes, of which exactly one pays $1. Under 100¢ would be riskless; on live books it is not, and the tile says so.
The two venues are separate exchanges with separate order books, so a gap between them is a real disagreement between two sets of traders — there is no house margin to strip out on either side. Polymarket also runs an international book, which this page does not quote. Informational only — always verify resolution terms and liquidity before taking a position.
Premier League: Kalshi vs Polymarket FAQ
Is Kalshi or Polymarket US cheaper for the Premier League?
It splits leg by leg rather than venue by venue. On the fixtures we have priced, both books are tight and a complete set costs more than $1 whichever venue you buy it on — and still does when you take the cheaper venue on each leg. What is real is smaller and more useful: the two venues frequently split the best price within a fixture, one with the cheaper favourite and the other with the cheaper longshot, so shopping each leg saves roughly a cent per contract against buying the whole set in one place. The tiles above mark which venue is cheaper on each leg after fees.
What is a complete set, and why does it cost more than $1?
A Premier League match has exactly three outcomes and they are mutually exclusive, so buying one contract on home, draw and away guarantees that exactly one pays out $1. That bundle is a complete set. If you could buy all three for less than $1 the profit would be riskless. In practice each leg trades at its ask rather than its midpoint and both venues charge a trading fee, so a set costs a little over $1 — on the fixtures priced here, typically 102¢ to 106¢ all-in. That gap is the round-trip cost of the market, not an edge.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket US show different prices for the same match?
Because they are different exchanges. They share no order book, no liquidity and no settlement process, so each price reflects only the traders on that venue. Polymarket also runs a separate international book, which is not what this page quotes — every Polymarket price here comes from Polymarket US. Treating quotes from two venues as interchangeable is the most common way to convince yourself an edge exists when it does not.
How do the trading fees compare?
Both venues charge a fee that peaks on coin-flip contracts and shrinks toward the extremes. Kalshi publishes its schedule: 7% of price × (1 − price) per contract, which is 1.75¢ on a 50¢ contract and about a third of a cent on a 95¢ one. Polymarket US publishes a fee coefficient of 0.06 per market, which we apply in the same shape. Every price comparison on this page is made after fees, because a fee-blind comparison systematically favours whichever venue charges more — and that is the venue we happen to earn a referral on, which is precisely why we do not do it that way.