How Kalshi settles WTI oil on day
Rules last read
Settles YES when
The contract resolves YES if the official daily settlement price for the named WTI crude oil futures contract on the settlement date is strictly above the threshold price in USD/Bbl.
3 resolution traps in the KXWTI rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
WTI oil on dayThe contract resolves YES if the official daily settlement price for the named WTI crude oil futures contract on the settlement date is strictly above the threshold price in USD/Bbl.3 traps
- Strict greater-than, not greater-or-equal — A settlement price exactly at the threshold resolves NO, not YES — hitting the number precisely is insufficient.
- Specific futures contract month, not spot price — Resolution uses the named contract month's settlement price, not the WTI spot price or a nearby/front-month contract, which can diverge meaningfully.
- Daily settlement price, not intraday or closing trade — The exchange's official daily settlement (which may be a volume-weighted average near the close) is used, not the last traded price or any intraday print, so they can differ.
KXWTI contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXWTI
554
graded
261
won
47.0%
win rate
+$6.70
net
Net is a SUM over a flat one-contract stake — +1.2¢ per contract across 554. Full method and every graded position on the track record.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle WTI oil on day markets?
The contract resolves YES if the official daily settlement price for the named WTI crude oil futures contract on the settlement date is strictly above the threshold price in USD/Bbl. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a WTI oil on day contract resolves?
We flag 3 traps in these rules. The first: Strict greater-than, not greater-or-equal — A settlement price exactly at the threshold resolves NO, not YES — hitting the number precisely is insufficient.
What does the KXWTI ticker mean?
KXWTI is Kalshi's series ticker for WTI oil on day. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading WTI oil on day?
Yes — 554 graded positions on KXWTI: 261 won, 293 lost, +$6.70 net at one contract per signal (+1.2¢ per contract).
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.