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Geopolitics · Shipping lanes · Polymarket US

Shipping lane odds: traffic through Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez, Panama and Malacca

Prices as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET · updates every few minutes

Polymarket US lists markets on the 7-day average of ship transit calls through five chokepoints, as IMF PortWatch publishes it, and on whether traffic through the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait stops. As of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET, the highest-priced outcome on “Strait of Hormuz traffic hits zero by Dec. 31?” is 0 Ship Transits on Any Day at 55¢, an implied 55% chance. The market is scheduled to close by January 5, 2027. Prices are the mid of each contract’s bid and ask on Polymarket US.

What Polymarket US lists for the shipping lanes

Strait of Hormuz traffic hits zero by Dec. 31?

ContractPolymarket USPolymarketPartner
0 Ship Transits on Any Day55¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

Bab el-Mandeb traffic hits zero by Dec. 31?

ContractPolymarket USPolymarketPartner
0 Ship Transits on Any Day93¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed?

ByPolymarket USPolymarketPartner
By December 31, 202611¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

Strait of Hormuz: 7-day average on Nov. 30

Transit callsPolymarket USPolymarketPartner
2+90¢
3+93¢
4+79¢
5+44¢
6+14¢
7+11¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

Strait of Hormuz: 7-day average on Dec. 31

Transit callsPolymarket USPolymarketPartner
2+93¢
3+99¢
4+67¢
5+38¢
6+31¢
7+13¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait: 7-day average on Nov. 30

Transit callsPolymarket USPolymarketPartner
22+97¢
24+71¢
26+73¢
28+64¢
30+73¢
32+73¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait: 7-day average on Dec. 31

Transit callsPolymarket USPolymarketPartner
22+97¢
24+97¢
26+97¢
28+97¢
30+97¢
32+97¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

Suez Canal: 7-day average on Nov. 30

Transit callsPolymarket USPolymarketPartner
38+93¢
40+91¢
42+88¢
44+92¢
46+88¢
48+87¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

Suez Canal: 7-day average on Dec. 31

Transit callsPolymarket USPolymarketPartner
38+91¢
40+75¢
42+90¢
44+90¢
46+75¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

Panama Canal: 7-day average on Nov. 30

Transit callsPolymarket USPolymarketPartner
24+98¢
25+97¢
26+97¢
27+98¢
28+97¢
29+97¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

Panama Canal: 7-day average on Dec. 31

Transit callsPolymarket USPolymarketPartner
24+97¢
25+96¢
26+98¢
27+96¢
28+96¢
29+98¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

Malacca Strait: 7-day average on Nov. 30

Transit callsPolymarket USPolymarketPartner
180+87¢
190+73¢
200+73¢
210+81¢
220+81¢
230+73¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

Malacca Strait: 7-day average on Dec. 31

Transit callsPolymarket USPolymarketPartner
180+97¢
190+97¢
200+97¢
210+97¢
220+97¢
230+97¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

Each price is the mid of the contract's bid and ask on Polymarket US, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price. A “3+” row asks whether the 7-day average is at least 3 transit calls. Information, not a recommendation.

New to the app? What to enter at sign-up is on our Polymarket US referral code page.

Shipping lanes odds — frequently asked

What are the Shipping lanes odds right now?

As of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET, Polymarket US prices 0 Ship Transits on Any Day at 55¢ on “Strait of Hormuz traffic hits zero by Dec. 31?”, an implied 55% chance. Prices move; the board on this page refreshes every few minutes.

Can you trade Shipping lanes odds in the US?

Yes, on Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange. Polymarket US is available in every state except Nevada and Louisiana. You must be 18 or older. Not available in all jurisdictions.

How do I read these prices?

Each contract pays $1 if its outcome happens. A price of 40¢ reads as a 40% implied chance. We show the mid of the bid and ask, and no price at all when the book is one-sided or wide.

What do the shipping lane markets settle on?

On IMF PortWatch. The average markets settle on the 7-day moving average of transit calls through each chokepoint that PortWatch shows for the named date; the "hits zero" markets settle Yes if PortWatch publishes a day with no transit calls before the deadline. Each market’s full rules are on Polymarket US.

Why do shipping lanes matter for oil prices?

The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait sit on the main tanker routes out of the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, so traders watch traffic there as a supply risk for crude. The Polymarket US listings we read on Nov. 14, 2026 had no crude oil market; our WTI page shows the live Kalshi crude markets.

WTI crude oil odds on Kalshi · commodity markets · geopolitics markets · is Polymarket US legal?

Sponsored by Polymarket US

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.