Geopolitics · Polymarket US

Geopolitics prediction markets

What Polymarket US prices on alliances, institutions and the world's shipping chokepoints. Each board shows the market's price with its as-of time. Information, not a recommendation.

Shipping lanes

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez and Panama canals and the Malacca Strait: Shipping lanes odds.

NATO and the United Nations on Polymarket US

Any country withdraws from NATO?

By	Polymarket USPolymarketPartner
By December 31, 2026	4¢
By December 31, 2027	36¢

Polymarket US, as of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET. Each price is the mid of that contract’s bid and ask, in cents per $1 contract; a one-sided or wide book shows no price.

New to the app? What to enter at sign-up is on our Polymarket US sign-up code page.

Geopolitics markets — frequently asked

Will any country withdraw from NATO?

Polymarket US asks whether any NATO member formally starts its withdrawal, with one contract per deadline. As of Nov 14, 7:52 PM ET, "By December 31, 2026" is priced at 4¢, an implied 4% chance. The market settles on an official step such as a notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?

Polymarket US lists one contract per candidate on "Next UN Secretary-General?", settling on who the General Assembly appoints by June 30, 2027; an acting Secretary-General does not count. Its candidates have no two-sided price right now, so none is quoted.

Can you trade geopolitics markets in the US?

Yes, on Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange. Polymarket US is available in every state except Nevada and Louisiana. You must be 18 or older. Not available in all jurisdictions.

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