Prices as of April 1, 2026, pre-speech. Markets move fast — treat all figures as historical context.
Donald Trump is scheduled to give a speech tonight at 9 ET. The general consensus is that he'll be giving an update on Iran.
There is, of course, a prediction market for what Trump will say in this address. And there isn't much to divine from the surface numbers — even if we know the topic and had half of the speech ahead of time, there's always a chance he goes off-script and stream-of-consciousness-es his way into "April Fools" (currently at 5% on Kalshi and 6% on Polymarket).
The Market Snapshot
Here's where the two biggest exchanges have the wild-card outcomes priced:
Hugs to both exchanges for not sneakily adding "Day" in there, too. This actually makes the April Fools line a little more attractive as a "let's have some drinks and see if he says it" $5 buy.
But that's not the real play here.
The Angle Nobody Is Pricing
At 6:24 PM ET — two and a half hours before Trump takes the mic — NASA is launching Artemis II into space for a trip to "the vicinity of the moon." It may set a record for the longest distance a human has traveled away from Earth. And as the New York Times pointed out this week, nobody seems to care.
But Donald Trump does.
Trump created Space Force in 2019. He issued an executive order in December to get the US back on the moon by 2028. He's not a passive observer on this — he's obsessed with it. A lot of politicians have followed his lead. Hold your nose for the cringe at the end, but here's Ted Cruz in September:
"Make no mistake, we are in a new space race with China. And if we fail, there will be a bad moon on the rise."
So What Does the Moon Have to Do with the Speech?
If you take a second look at the full odds table through the lens of Trump touting the Artemis II launch — a topic with which he's obsessed — as a beacon of good news to offset a Very Serious Address, things start to look a little different. Values change. Possibilities emerge.
Trump is an optimistic guy and a carnival barker, no matter what your politics. "Come check out this great thing!" And with an open mic and a need to throw in some good vibes — and a rocket going to(ward) the moon just hours before — let's re-examine what he might say when referring to a rocket to the moon:
The Full Odds Table
| Term | Probability | Artemis Angle |
|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | 97% | Iran context |
| Epic Fury | 92% | Iran context |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 91% | Iran context |
| NATO | 90% | Iran context |
| Iran (5+ times) | 85% | Iran context |
| Oil | 84% | Iran context |
| Deal / Settle | 83% | Iran context |
| Obliterate / Obliteration | 81% | Iran context |
| Israel / Israeli | 78% | Iran context |
| Drone | 78% | Iran context |
| Hormuz | 73% | Iran context |
| Negotiate / Negotiation | 70% | Iran context |
| Gas / Gasoline | 62% | Iran context |
| Midnight Hammer | 60% | Iran context |
| Supreme Leader | 58% | Iran context |
| Ceasefire | 58% | Iran context |
| Hegseth | 53% | Iran context |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | 53% | Iran context |
| China | 33% | Space race framing |
| Democrat | 53% | — |
| Ground | 42% | "Here on the ground while Artemis II…" |
| Paper Tiger | 43% | — |
| Venezuela | 40% | — |
| Peace in the Middle East | 36% | — |
| Soleimani | 39% | — |
| Trump | 37% | — |
| Withdraw / Withdrawing | 37% | — |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | 38% | — |
| Eight War / Nine War | 38% | — |
| Marco / Rubio | 35% | — |
| Uranium | 32% | — |
| Election | 30% | — |
| Iraq | 30% | — |
| Easter | 29% | Holiday combo potential |
| America First | 28% | "America First… on the moon" |
| Stock Market | 25% | "Flying higher than four astronauts…" |
| Ukraine | 27% | — |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | 23% | — |
| Fake News | 27% | — |
| Kharg Island | 22% | — |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | 22% | — |
| Barack Hussein Obama | 21% | — |
| Golden Age | 23% | "Golden Age of space exploration" |
| Supreme Court | 18% | — |
| Hottest | 19% | "Hottest country on Earth right now" |
| Russia / Russian | 21% | Space race combo w/ China |
| Tariff | 19% | — |
| Excursion | 18% | — |
| Cuba | 19% | — |
| Ballroom | 17% | — |
| Save America Act | 16% | — |
| Biden | 34% | — |
| Transgender | 9% | — |
| April Fools | 9% | — |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 7% | — |
| Event does not qualify | 1% | — |
Where the Value Is
"Golden Age" at 23% — love it. "A new Golden Age of space exploration" is exactly the kind of phrase Trump uses. He's used "Golden Age" repeatedly since taking office. Put it in the context of Artemis II launching hours before he speaks and it's underpriced relative to the normal run-rate alone.
In that same vein, think through how he might naturally refer to a rocket heading to the moon:
- "Hottest" — "We are the hottest country on Earth right now" (19%)
- "China" / "Russia" — "We'll get there before China, before Russia" (33% / 21%)
- "America First" — "Putting America First… on the moon" (28%)
- "Stock Market" — "The stock market will be flying higher than the four brave astronauts on their way to outer space right now" (25%)
- "Ground" — "While we're here on the ground, four brave astronauts…" (42% — inflated for ground-invasion reads, but there's a second path)
I've never been one for combos. But a Russia/China combo makes sense here — both are natural Artemis II foils in one sentence. Maybe another layering in Golden Age. Use the Combo Builder to model the combined expected value before pulling the trigger.
"Ground" is interesting specifically because the market is pricing it almost entirely as a ground-invasion question. But Trump has waxed poetic before — and "here on the ground while Artemis II is among the stars" is exactly his register.
The Bottom Line
There's a very good chance Trump mentions Artemis II tonight. He created Space Force. He signed the executive order. He has every reason to turn a heavy address into a moment of national pride. And if you believe in that angle, there is real value sitting in these markets right now — mostly in terms that the crowd is pricing exclusively through an Iran lens.
That's the edge. Check the full Kalshi markets and Polymarket for live pricing before 9 ET.
Want to build a multi-leg position on this? Run the numbers in the Combo Builder — it handles correlated outcomes so you're not double-counting probability.
New to prediction markets? Start with converting these odds to implied probability so you know exactly what you're betting on.