New Release · The 7 Oracles
World Cup 2026: The Complete Market Guide
Monte Carlo Simulations, Golden Boot Projections & Value Plays for Every Match
48 teams. 72 group-stage breakdowns. 10,000 simulations. Every edge quantified.
48
Teams covered
72
Match breakdowns
10K
Simulations run
Download the complete guide — free
The 2026 tournament is over. The method below — futures value, advancement edges, tournament variance — is what the model ran on, and every call is graded on the World Cup hub.
What's inside
How to Read a World Cup Market
Tournament futures, group-stage props, and where the real edge lives.
The Monte Carlo Engine
10,000 simulations, Poisson modeling, and how we rank every team's true odds.
Favorites, Dark Horses & Traps
Spain, England, France — where the market is right and where it's leaving money.
Golden Boot Projections
Top 25 scorers by goals-per-game rate, penalty edge, and expected group progression.
Value Plays by Group
Every group broken down — teams to back, teams to fade, and the specific positions worth sizing.
Prediction Market Strategy
How to use Kalshi and Polymarket for World Cup edges — liquidity timing, arbitrage windows.
Data-driven, not opinion-driven
Every projection in this guide comes from the same Monte Carlo engine that runs the live simulation on this site. We ran the full 2026 bracket 10,000 times — accounting for group-stage draws, knockout variance, and individual player goal rates. The book translates that output into actionable positions.
Companion resource
Free team profiles for all 48 squads
Every team covered in the book has a dedicated market profile on the hub — odds, key players, group draw, and tactical breakdown. Free, no subscription required.
Browse all 48 team profiles →2026 champions: Spain · Next up: 2030
The framework that read the 2026 field
Spain lifted the 2026 trophy, and both finalists sat in the model's top group. The guide's method — futures value, advancement edges, tournament variance — is evergreen and reloads for the 2030 World Cup.