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TLT odds on Kalshi & Polymarket US

As of Nov 12, 12:44 AM ET, Kalshi prices 79% on “Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?”; as of Nov 12, 12:12 AM ET, Polymarket US prices 3% on “Fed Rate Cut Greater Than 25bps?”.PolymarketPartner

TLT is the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF; long bonds move with the Fed path and the yield curve these markets price. Prices are the middle of each market's two-sided book; a price is a market reading, not a recommendation.

Our model's read on these strikes: Fed Rate Tracker →

Live TLT markets

Live prediction markets on Fed rates and Treasury yields: market, venue, Yes price, implied chance and close date.
MarketVenueYes priceImpliedCloses
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?Kalshi79¢79%Mar 17, 2027
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?Kalshi95¢95%Apr 28, 2027
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?Kalshi96¢96%Apr 28, 2027
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?Kalshi97¢97%Apr 28, 2027
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?Kalshi98¢98%Apr 28, 2027
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?Kalshi82¢82%Jun 9, 2027
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?Kalshi96¢96%Apr 28, 2027
Fed Rate Cut Greater Than 25bps?Polymarket USPolymarketPartner3¢3%Jan 14, 2027

Kalshi prices read Nov 12, 12:44 AM ET. Polymarket US prices from our snapshot at Nov 12, 12:12 AM ET. Each venue settles on its own rules; check the contract before you trade.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the TLT odds on Kalshi?

As of Nov 12, 12:44 AM ET, Kalshi prices 79% on “Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?”; as of Nov 12, 12:12 AM ET, Polymarket US prices 3% on “Fed Rate Cut Greater Than 25bps?”.

What do TLT prediction markets track?

TLT is the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF; long bonds move with the Fed path and the yield curve these markets price. Kalshi lists these on it: KXFED, KX10Y2Y. A Yes contract pays $1 if it happens and $0 if not, so its price in cents reads as the market's chance.

Does Polymarket US have TLT markets?

Yes. 1 Polymarket US market on Fed rates and Treasury yields had a two-sided price in our latest snapshot (Nov 12, 12:12 AM ET).

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