Who will win Brazil vs Haiti at the 2026 World Cup?

Our 10,000-simulation model gives Brazil a 45% win probability, with 25% chance of a draw and 30% for Haiti. Top value play: Brazil over 2.5 goals.

Will Brazil vs Haiti go over 2.5 goals?

Our simulation projects this match as an Over 2.5 goals lean based on both teams' attacking output and defensive profiles.

GROUP CMATCHDAY 3

Brazil vs Haiti: World Cup 2026 Prediction

2026-06-22 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami

Brazil vs Haiti — World Cup 2026 Group C prediction graphic

10,000 Sim Result

45%Brazil+122

25%Draw+300

30%Haiti+233

Over 2.5: Yes ✓BTTS: No

Top Value Play

Brazil over 2.5 goals

Brazil

Odds+809

Advance %99.7%

Win title %11%

Haiti

Odds+99999

Advance %13.1%

Win title %0%

Match Analysis

Brazil and Haiti meet in Group C at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-22 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami. Our simulation gives Brazil a clear edge — a 15-point win probability gap separating these sides. Brazil enters with a 99.7% advancement probability in our model vs Haiti at 13.1%. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Top value play: Brazil over 2.5 goals.

Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that's where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →

For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.