Settles YES when
Resolves YES if the 12-month CPI change ending August 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to one decimal place, is strictly greater than the threshold.
3 resolution traps in the KXCPIYOY rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles β which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
InflationResolves YES if the 12-month CPI change ending August 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to one decimal place, is strictly greater than the threshold.3 traps
- Strictly greater than, not equal to β The rule says 'more than' the threshold, so a BLS print exactly at the threshold resolves NO β hitting it precisely is not enough.
- One-decimal BLS print used, not full precision β Resolution uses the one-decimal place value published by BLS (e.g. 3.2%), not the underlying unrounded figure, so rounding at that digit can flip the outcome.
- No revision clause specified β The rules do not clarify whether resolution uses the initial BLS release or any subsequent revision, creating ambiguity if BLS revises the August 2026 CPI print after first publication.
KXCPIYOY contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability β 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXCPIYOY
75
graded
5
won
7.0%
win rate
β$1.92
net
Net is a SUM over a flat one-contract stake β β2.6Β’ per contract across 75. A further 112 positions settled void (contract cancelled, no result); those are excluded from the record rather than counted as outcomes. Full method and every graded position on the track record.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Inflation markets?
Resolves YES if the 12-month CPI change ending August 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to one decimal place, is strictly greater than the threshold. That criterion is the whole contract β the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Inflation contract resolves?
We flag 3 traps in these rules. The first: Strictly greater than, not equal to β The rule says 'more than' the threshold, so a BLS print exactly at the threshold resolves NO β hitting it precisely is not enough.
What does the KXCPIYOY ticker mean?
KXCPIYOY is Kalshi's series ticker for Inflation. Individual contracts append the event and the strike β so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Inflation?
Yes β 75 graded positions on KXCPIYOY: 5 won, 70 lost, β$1.92 net at one contract per signal (β2.6Β’ per contract). A further 112 settled void and are excluded β a cancelled contract is not a result.
This is our reading of Kalshiβs published resolution rules, not a substitute for them β read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.