How Kalshi settles Inflation
Rules last read
Settles YES when
The contract resolves YES if the BLS-reported 12-month CPI change ending on the settlement month, rounded to one decimal place, is strictly greater than the threshold.
3 resolution traps in the KXCPIYOY rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
InflationThe contract resolves YES if the BLS-reported 12-month CPI change ending on the settlement month, rounded to one decimal place, is strictly greater than the threshold.3 traps
- Strict comparison: hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — The rule requires CPI to increase by *more than* the threshold, so a print exactly equal to the threshold is insufficient for a YES resolution.
- One-decimal BLS print used, not raw/unrounded figure — The contract explicitly uses the one-decimal place value published by the BLS, so the underlying unrounded figure is irrelevant — only the official rounded print determines settlement.
- Initial release only, revisions unclear — The rules do not specify whether a subsequent BLS revision would override the first published figure, creating ambiguity if the BLS revises the number after initial release.
KXCPIYOY contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXCPIYOY
73
graded
5
won
7.0%
win rate
−$1.79
net
Net is a SUM over a flat one-contract stake — −2.5¢ per contract across 73. A further 112 positions settled void (contract cancelled, no result); those are excluded from the record rather than counted as outcomes. Full method and every graded position on the track record.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Inflation markets?
The contract resolves YES if the BLS-reported 12-month CPI change ending on the settlement month, rounded to one decimal place, is strictly greater than the threshold. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Inflation contract resolves?
We flag 3 traps in these rules. The first: Strict comparison: hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — The rule requires CPI to increase by *more than* the threshold, so a print exactly equal to the threshold is insufficient for a YES resolution.
What does the KXCPIYOY ticker mean?
KXCPIYOY is Kalshi's series ticker for Inflation. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Inflation?
Yes — 73 graded positions on KXCPIYOY: 5 won, 68 lost, −$1.79 net at one contract per signal (−2.5¢ per contract). A further 112 settled void and are excluded — a cancelled contract is not a result.
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.