Macro & economicsKXCPICORE

How Kalshi settles CPI core

Rules last read August 17, 2026

Settles YES when

Resolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics' seasonally adjusted CPI-U All Items Less Food and Energy (core CPI) month-over-month change for the relevant reference month exceeds the threshold (strictly above the threshold, e.g. strictly above 0.7%).

4 resolution traps in the KXCPICORE rules

The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.

CPI core

4 traps

Strictly above threshold — exact hit resolves NO — The rule says 'above' the threshold, so a print exactly equal to the threshold does not resolve YES; traders long this contract need the reading to strictly exceed it.
BLS initial release vs. subsequent revisions — The rules cite BLS publication but do not specify whether the first release or a later revision governs; core CPI prints are occasionally revised, and it is unclear which print triggers settlement.
Seasonally adjusted series, not unadjusted — BLS publishes both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted core CPI figures, which can differ; only the seasonally adjusted print counts for resolution.
Month-over-month change, not year-over-year — Core CPI is commonly reported as both a monthly and annual change; resolution depends solely on the single-month percentage change, not the 12-month figure.

KXCPICORE contracts open now

ContractYESImplied

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in December?4c4%

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in December?5c5%

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in September?38c38%

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in September?12c12%

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in September?70c70%

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.8% in November?4c4%

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.7% in December?4c4%

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in October?99c99%

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in October?86c86%

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in October?69c69%

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.6% in November?5c5%

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in October?14c14%

A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.

Our record on KXCPICORE

We have not graded a position on KXCPICORE. Rather than show a zeroed scorecard, this stays empty until there is a real one. Everything we have graded is on the track record.

Go deeper

Inflation Tracker →

Read the official KXCPICORE rules on Kalshi →All settlement rules →

Frequently Asked Questions

How does Kalshi settle CPI core markets?

What can go wrong when a CPI core contract resolves?

We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Strictly above threshold — exact hit resolves NO — The rule says 'above' the threshold, so a print exactly equal to the threshold does not resolve YES; traders long this contract need the reading to strictly exceed it.

What does the KXCPICORE ticker mean?

KXCPICORE is Kalshi's series ticker for CPI core. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.

Do you have a record trading CPI core?

Not yet. We track KXCPICORE settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.

This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.