How Kalshi settles CPI core
Rules last read
Settles YES when
The contract resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted CPI-U for All Items less Food and Energy (core CPI) for the settlement month, as published by the BLS, shows a month-over-month increase strictly above the threshold.
4 resolution traps in the KXCPICORE rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
CPI coreThe contract resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted CPI-U for All Items less Food and Energy (core CPI) for the settlement month, as published by the BLS, shows a month-over-month increase strictly above the threshold.4 traps
- Strictly above threshold; exact hit resolves NO — The rules require the increase to be *above* the threshold, so a print landing exactly at the threshold does not resolve YES.
- Seasonally adjusted series, not unadjusted — BLS publishes both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted core CPI figures, which can differ; only the seasonally adjusted print governs resolution.
- No revision clause specified — BLS revises CPI data periodically; the rules do not clarify whether the initial release or a later revised print is used, creating settlement ambiguity if a revision crosses the threshold.
- Percentage change calculation not defined — The rules state the index must 'increase by above' the threshold but do not specify whether this is the BLS-reported rounded month-over-month percent change or a figure derived from the raw index levels, which can differ due to rounding.
KXCPICORE contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle CPI core markets?
The contract resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted CPI-U for All Items less Food and Energy (core CPI) for the settlement month, as published by the BLS, shows a month-over-month increase strictly above the threshold. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a CPI core contract resolves?
We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Strictly above threshold; exact hit resolves NO — The rules require the increase to be *above* the threshold, so a print landing exactly at the threshold does not resolve YES.
What does the KXCPICORE ticker mean?
KXCPICORE is Kalshi's series ticker for CPI core. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading CPI core?
Not yet. We track KXCPICORE settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.