How Kalshi settles Named Storms
Reviewed by Benny Ricciardi
Rules last read
Settles YES when
Resolves YES if the number of named storms in the specified basin (Central Pacific: more than 7; Eastern Pacific: more than 26) is confirmed by the National Weather Service during the May 15–December 1 season.
4 resolution traps in the KXNAMEDSTORM rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
Named StormsResolves YES if the number of named storms in the specified basin (Central Pacific: more than 7; Eastern Pacific: more than 26) is confirmed by the National Weather Service during the May 15–December 1 season.4 traps
- Strictly greater than threshold, not equal — Hitting exactly the threshold (7 for Central Pacific, 26 for Eastern Pacific) resolves NO — the count must exceed it, so a trader long on YES needs one more storm than the threshold number.
- NWS 'or equivalent' source is ambiguous — The rules allow an unspecified 'equivalent national weather service,' meaning a count from a non-NWS body (e.g., JTWC or a foreign agency) could be used if NWS data is unavailable or disputed, potentially affecting the final confirmed count.
- Season boundary is May 15–Dec 1, not calendar year — Storms named before May 15 or on/after December 1 do not count, so early-season or late-season storms near those cutoffs could be excluded and affect whether the threshold is crossed.
- Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific are separate contracts — These are two distinct variants with different basins and different thresholds; a trader must confirm they are positioned in the correct basin's contract, as storm counts are not interchangeable between the two.
KXNAMEDSTORM contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXNAMEDSTORM
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Named Storms markets?
Resolves YES if the number of named storms in the specified basin (Central Pacific: more than 7; Eastern Pacific: more than 26) is confirmed by the National Weather Service during the May 15–December 1 season. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Named Storms contract resolves?
We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Strictly greater than threshold, not equal — Hitting exactly the threshold (7 for Central Pacific, 26 for Eastern Pacific) resolves NO — the count must exceed it, so a trader long on YES needs one more storm than the threshold number.
What does the KXNAMEDSTORM ticker mean?
KXNAMEDSTORM is Kalshi's series ticker for Named Storms. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Named Storms?
Not yet. We track KXNAMEDSTORM settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.