How Kalshi settles Named Storms
Rules last read
Settles YES when
The contract resolves YES if the number of named storms in the named region exceeds the threshold during the defined season window, as confirmed by the National Weather Service or an equivalent authority.
3 resolution traps in the KXNAMEDSTORM rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
Named StormsThe contract resolves YES if the number of named storms in the named region exceeds the threshold during the defined season window, as confirmed by the National Weather Service or an equivalent authority.3 traps
- Strictly greater than threshold, not equal — The rules require *more than* the threshold number of named storms, so hitting exactly the threshold resolves NO.
- 'Equivalent national weather service' source is vague — The authoritative source is the NWS *or equivalent*, leaving ambiguity about which agency's count governs if tallies differ (e.g., NOAA vs. a foreign meteorological body).
- Hard date boundaries may exclude late-season storms — Only storms named within the exact season window count; a storm that forms or is named outside those dates — even partially overlapping — may not be included, and the cutoff date is strict.
KXNAMEDSTORM contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Our record on KXNAMEDSTORM
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Named Storms markets?
The contract resolves YES if the number of named storms in the named region exceeds the threshold during the defined season window, as confirmed by the National Weather Service or an equivalent authority. That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Named Storms contract resolves?
We flag 3 traps in these rules. The first: Strictly greater than threshold, not equal — The rules require *more than* the threshold number of named storms, so hitting exactly the threshold resolves NO.
What does the KXNAMEDSTORM ticker mean?
KXNAMEDSTORM is Kalshi's series ticker for Named Storms. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Named Storms?
Not yet. We track KXNAMEDSTORM settlement rules, but no position on this series has been graded, so there is no record to show. We would rather say that than show a zeroed scorecard.
This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.