Settles YES when
Resolves YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold at 5:00 PM ET on the settlement date is strictly above the strike, in USD/t.oz. Kalshi names the settlement source in series metadata as "Pyth - Gold".
6 resolution traps in the KXGOLDD rules
The wording that changes how or when the contract settles β which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.
Gold Daily priceResolves YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold at 5:00 PM ET on the settlement date is strictly above the strike, in USD/t.oz. Kalshi names the settlement source in series metadata as "Pyth - Gold".6 traps
- Strictly above the strike β an exact hit resolves NO β strike_type is 'greater'. The rule says the close must be *above* the strike, not at or above, so a print exactly equal to the strike resolves NO. The 15-minute sibling KXGOLD15M uses greater_or_equal and pays YES on an exact tie β the opposite convention on the same metal.
- One 1-minute candle close, not the spot mid or the daily settlement β Resolution uses only the close of the single 1-minute candlestick at 5:00 PM ET. That is one print, and it can differ from the broader spot or the exchange settlement price a trader is watching.
- The settling candle is the one labelled 4:59 PM, not 5:00 PM β A candle is labelled by the minute it OPENS. The candle that closes at 5:00:00 PM is the one labelled 4:59. Reading the 5:00 candle reads the minute AFTER settlement.
- Rounding is 2 decimals β KXGOLDD and KXGOLD15M both round to 2 decimal places.
- 5:00 PM Eastern shifts with daylight saving β The settlement minute is fixed to Eastern local time, so its UTC instant moves by an hour in March and November. A UTC-based watcher reads the wrong candle on either side of the change.
- Replaced the weekly series β old KXGOLDW/KXSILVERW history does not continue here β Kalshi retired the weekly metals series after 2026-09-04T21:00Z (every market finalized, zero open events). The daily series had already run alongside it since 2026-07-02, so it is not a renamed continuation and its settled history is its own.
KXGOLDD contracts open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability β 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
How close our price feed is to Kalshi's settlement print
Kalshi settles KXGOLDD on the close of a single Pyth 1-minute candle, and publishes the exact figure it used. We record our own independent read at that instant and score it against theirs. Rounded to 2 decimals, the precision this series settles at.
Every miss, listed
- lag 2026-10-01 21:00Z Β· off by 3.13
- lag 2026-09-30 21:00Z Β· off by 0.72
- lag 2026-09-29 21:00Z Β· off by 2.02
- lag 2026-09-28 21:00Z Β· off by 2.25
- lag 2026-09-24 21:00Z Β· off by 1.99
- lag 2026-09-23 21:00Z Β· off by 1.79
- lag 2026-09-21 21:00Z Β· off by 0.05
- lag 2026-09-21 21:00Z Β· off by 1.59
- lag 2026-09-17 21:00Z Β· off by 0.31
- lag 2026-09-16 21:00Z Β· off by 0.2
This is a measured approximation, not the settlement feed itself. If a contract is decided by the last tick at the final decimal place, do not size it off this. Trade responsibly.
Our record on KXGOLDD
22
graded
2
won
9.0%
win rate
β$4.83
net
Net is a SUM over a flat one-contract stake β β22.0Β’ per contract across 22. Full method and every graded position on the track record.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle Gold Daily price markets?
Resolves YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold at 5:00 PM ET on the settlement date is strictly above the strike, in USD/t.oz. Kalshi names the settlement source in series metadata as "Pyth - Gold". That criterion is the whole contract β the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.
What can go wrong when a Gold Daily price contract resolves?
We flag 6 traps in these rules. The first: Strictly above the strike β an exact hit resolves NO β strike_type is 'greater'. The rule says the close must be *above* the strike, not at or above, so a print exactly equal to the strike resolves NO. The 15-minute sibling KXGOLD15M uses greater_or_equal and pays YES on an exact tie β the opposite convention on the same metal.
What does the KXGOLDD ticker mean?
KXGOLDD is Kalshi's series ticker for Gold Daily price. Individual contracts append the event and the strike β so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.
Do you have a record trading Gold Daily price?
Yes β 22 graded positions on KXGOLDD: 2 won, 20 lost, β$4.83 net at one contract per signal (β22.0Β’ per contract).
How accurate is your price feed against Kalshi's KXGOLDD settlement?
Across 20 settled instants measured so far, our independent read reproduced Kalshi's published settlement print to within one tick 1 time β mean absolute error 1.1875, worst 3.58. Kalshi settles on the close of a single Pyth 1-minute candle, and publishes the exact number it used, so this is measured against their own print, not an estimate. We started recording on 2026-09-08 and nothing before that can be reconstructed, so the sample is small and stated rather than rounded up.
This is our reading of Kalshiβs published resolution rules, not a substitute for them β read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.