United States vs Paraguay: World Cup 2026 Prediction

Match Analysis

United States and Paraguay meet in Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-14 at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. This is one of the tighter matches in Group D. The simulation sees these teams as closely matched, with just a 7-point spread. United States enters with a 69.5% advancement probability in our model vs Paraguay at 66.3%. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Both Teams to Score is also in play — both sides have real scoring threats that should test the opposing defense. Top value play: Pulisic anytime scorer.

Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that's where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →

For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.