United States 4–1 Paraguay: World Cup 2026 Result
By The 7 Oracles · · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Quick Answer
United States 4–1 Paraguay — full time, 2026 World Cup Group D. Goals: Bobadilla 7' (OG), Balogun 31', Balogun 45', Maurício 73', Reyna 98'. Our pre-match call (Pulisic to score) missed.
Live model · simulation updated
Actionable Plays
Top Value Play
Pulisic to score
Secondary: Balogun to score first (+550) — HIT. After the early own goal, Folarin Balogun opened the live scoring (31') and added a second before halftime. Benny's pre-match call cashed at +550.
Trade this on Kalshi →Single-match handicaps and tournament outrights are different contracts — a team with a 0% outright can still be very tradeable on a single-match handicap or scorer prop.
Market Edges — United States
Market Edges — Paraguay
Tournament Path · 10K Sim
Single-elimination compounds variance — a side that wins ~75% of individual matches still only lifts the trophy ~13% of the time over seven rounds. Where the market implies a higher number than the funnel, the favorite is a short contract.
Key Scorers · United States vs Paraguay
| Player | PK | Intl G | Golden Boot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | ||||
| Folarin Balogun | — | 16 | — | |
| Christian Pulisictop pick | ✓ | 14 | 0.8% | |
| Paraguay | ||||
| Miguel Almiron | ✓ | 24 | — | |
| Antonio Sanabria | — | 16 | — | |
Golden Boot = probability of finishing the tournament's top scorer (10K sim). Intl G = senior international goals.
Group D · Model Standings
| Team | Outright | Sim Win | Group Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | +8991 | 1.1% | 100% |
| Australia | 0.3% | 100% | |
| Paraguay | 0.1% | 100% | |
| Türkiye | <0.1% | 0% |
Team Profiles
Style of play, key scorers, set-piece routines, and aerial threats for both sides.
Playing Style
High press, physically dominant midfield, direct in transition. More comfortable attacking on the counter than controlling possession. Set pieces are a genuine weapon. Home crowd in every group match is a real X factor — all group games on American soil. Knockout run: Beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 but lost Folarin Balogun to a red card — he is SUSPENDED for the Belgium tie. Christian Pulisic now leads the line.
Key Scorers
Folarin Balogun · 16g
AS Monaco — opened the World Cup with a debut brace (31' and first-half stoppage) and scored the first live goal of the 4-1 win ov…
Christian Pulisic · 14g
AC Milan — Captain America and the all-time No…
Ricardo Pepi · 5g
PSV Eindhoven — a super sub, nothing more: the late closer off the bench, well behind Balogun in the pecking order…
Key Creators
- Christian Pulisic · Winger / No. 10
- Gio Reyna · No. 10
- Weston McKennie · Box-to-box CM
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Christian Pulisic
- Free Kicks
- Christian Pulisic
- Corners
- Antonee Robinson / Tim Weah
Aerial Threats
- Chris Richards — Crystal Palace centre back…
- Weston McKennie — Physical, dangerous in the 18-yard box on crosses…
Tactical Notes
USMNT under Mauricio Pochettino plays a compact 4-3-3 that transitions to 4-2-3-1 in possession. Best when pressing and exploiting space on the counter. Weakest when forced to break down a parked bus — lacks the creative midfield to unlock low blocks. The 2026 advantage: all group matches on American soil. Historical data says host nations advance from groups 85% of the time. This squad is better than the sum of its parts when the crowd is behind them.
Qual
8-5-4
GF
30
GA
22
Playing Style
Paraguay under Gustavo Alfaro are compact, physical, and dangerous from dead balls — exactly the formula that punches above weight at World Cups. Miguel Almiron (Atlanta United) is the engine: pressing, passing, scoring from distance. Antonio Sanabria (Cremonese) is the old-school No. 9 who wins aerial duels and holds the line. Alfaro had Ecuador over-achieving at WC 2022 — he knows exactly how to get a mid-tier CONMEBOL side to perform. Group D with USA and Australia is wide open. Paraguay are legitimate second-place contenders and a push to the Round of 16. Totals: UNDER — Alfaro's systems are built to control and grind. Knockout run: Knocked Germany out on penalties (1-1) — the run's biggest scalp — and now draw France as a heavy underdog built on structure, not sustained threat.
Key Scorers
Miguel Almiron · 24g
Atlanta United (returned from Newcastle in 2025)…
Antonio Sanabria · 16g
Cremonese…
Ramón Sosa · 10g
Nottingham Forest…
Key Creators
- Miguel Almiron · Central midfielder / Second striker
- Antonio Sanabria · Centre forward
- Julio Enciso · Right winger / No. 10
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Miguel Almiron
- Free Kicks
- Miguel Almiron / Julio Enciso
- Corners
- Julio Enciso (delivery) / Antonio Sanabria, Gustavo Gómez (aerial targets)
Aerial Threats
- Antonio Sanabria — 6'1"…
- Gustavo Gómez — Palmeiras…
Tactical Notes
Alfaro turned Ecuador into dark horses at WC 2022 by doing exactly this: compact shape, fast transitions, clinical finishing, set piece goals. Paraguay are better technically than that Ecuador side. Almiron at 30 is the best player Alfaro has ever had. Group D — USA have home support but are fallible in defense, Australia are direct and physical. Paraguay should win one game and draw another. The over/under on their games is one of the clearest bets: Alfaro teams play 1-0, 1-1, 2-1. Never 3-2 or 4-3.
Qual
7-4-3
GF
20
GA
14
Who is favored in United States vs Paraguay?
United States and Paraguay meet in Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-12 at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles. Our simulation gives United States a clear edge — a 54-point win probability gap separating these sides. United States enters with a 100% advancement probability in our model vs Paraguay at 100%. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Both Teams to Score is also in play — both sides have real scoring threats that should test the opposing defense. Top value play: Pulisic to score.
Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that’s where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →
For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.
United States’s Other Matches
Other Group D Matches
What would change this model? A late star-player injury, a manager change inside six weeks of kickoff, or a major surface/venue surprise. The simulation re-runs nightly — see the methodology — and we republish whenever match-level residuals move more than a couple of points.
Run the Numbers
Get the World Cup edge — daily mispriced contracts and model picks to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.