Fed odds on Nov 3, 2026
What Kalshi, Polymarket.com and fed funds futures priced for the Dec 8–9, 2026 FOMC decision at the latest capture today. The favorite was a 25bp hike at 72.5% on Kalshi, 0.0 points from Polymarket.com. Live Dec 9 odds →
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket.com | Fed funds futures (implied) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50bp+ cut | 0.5%±0.0 | 0.4%±0.0 | — |
| 25bp cut | 1.5%±0.0 | 0.6%±0.0 | 0.0%±0.0 |
| Hold | 26.5%±0.0 | 25.5%±0.0 | 23.9%±0.0 |
| 25bp hike | 72.5%±0.0 | 72.5%±0.0 | 76.1%±0.0 |
| 50bp+ hike | 1.5%±0.0 | 1.9%±0.0 | — |
Each venue's close on this UTC day. “—” is no price, never 0% — the futures leg cannot express a 50bp move. Polymarket.com is the international book. Futures are a derived probability, never a contract price.
What printed that day
- all day ET — Election Day (midterms)
Data: Kalshi, Polymarket.com and fed funds futures, captured every 30 minutes by PredictionMarketsPicks — free with attribution at the CSV. Not a forecast; trade responsibly.