Belgium 0–0 Iran: World Cup 2026 Result
By The 7 Oracles · · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Quick Answer
Belgium 0–0 Iran — full time, 2026 World Cup Group G. Our pre-match call (Lukaku anytime scorer) missed.
Live model · simulation updated
Single-match handicaps and tournament outrights are different contracts — a team with a 0% outright can still be very tradeable on a single-match handicap or scorer prop.
Market Edges — Belgium
Market Edges — Iran
Tournament Path · 10K Sim
Single-elimination compounds variance — a side that wins ~75% of individual matches still only lifts the trophy ~13% of the time over seven rounds. Where the market implies a higher number than the funnel, the favorite is a short contract.
Key Scorers · Belgium vs Iran
| Player | PK | Intl G | Golden Boot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | ||||
| Romelu Lukakutop pick | ✓ | 84 | 1.3% | |
| Kevin De Bruyne | — | 28 | — | |
| Iran | ||||
| Mehdi Taremi | ✓ | 48 | — | |
| Ali Alipour | — | 12 | — | |
Golden Boot = probability of finishing the tournament's top scorer (10K sim). Intl G = senior international goals.
Group G · Model Standings
| Team | Outright | Sim Win | Group Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | +3746 | 2.6% | 100% |
| Egypt | +16567 | 0.6% | 100% |
| Iran | <0.1% | 0% | |
| New Zealand | <0.1% | 0% |
Team Profiles
Style of play, key scorers, set-piece routines, and aerial threats for both sides.
Playing Style
Belgium's golden generation takes its final bow. Kevin De Bruyne (35) may be past his Man City peak but remains the most technically gifted midfielder in the draw. Romelu Lukaku (33) is still a penalty box menace if fit. Thibaut Courtois in goal is world-class and the difference in tight games. Jeremy Doku provides genuine electric pace on the right wing. Leandro Trossard contributes everywhere. The problem: this squad's ceiling has been declining since 2018 — they've never won a major tournament. Group G with Egypt, Iran, and Scotland is very winnable. Totals: NEUTRAL — Belgium grind wins but don't produce fireworks. Knockout run: Edged Senegal 3-2 in extra time and face a Balogun-less USA as the model's slight favorite. Romelu Lukaku is the target man.
Key Scorers
Romelu Lukaku · 84g
Napoli…
Kevin De Bruyne · 28g
Napoli…
Jeremy Doku · 12g
Man City…
Key Creators
- Kevin De Bruyne · Central midfielder
- Jeremy Doku · Right wing
- Leandro Trossard · Left wing / AM
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Romelu Lukaku
- Free Kicks
- Kevin De Bruyne
- Corners
- Kevin De Bruyne (delivery) / Romelu Lukaku, Arthur Theate (targets)
Aerial Threats
- Romelu Lukaku — 6'3"…
- Koni De Winter — Juventus CB…
Tactical Notes
Belgium set up in a 4-3-3 under Rudi Garcia with De Bruyne operating as the deep-lying creator. The system is built to protect aging legs while maximizing Doku and Trossard's pace in transition. Courtois is the wildcard — if he's between the sticks at 100%, Belgium can keep clean sheets against anyone. The golden generation's failure to win anything haunts them. This is realistically their last shot. Group G is favorable — Egypt have Salah but a weaker supporting cast. Belgium win the group. The ceiling is QF. MD1 RESULT (Jun 15, vs Egypt, 1-1 draw): a stumble at Lumen Field — Lukaku (our anytime pick) didn't score, and Belgium were level only via a 66' own goal after Ashour's 19' strike. Raskin went off injured early; the equalizer came from an own goal, not open-play creation. Underwhelming for the talent on paper.
Qual
9-3-2
GF
31
GA
13
Playing Style
Team Melli under Amir Ghalenoei are organized, physical, and genuinely dangerous — especially at set pieces and on transitions. Mehdi Taremi (Olympiacos) is the best player in Iranian football history: intelligent movement, two-footed finishing, Champions League-caliber. Ali Alipour provides the second-striker depth behind Taremi. Iranian football has become tactically sophisticated — they press in waves and are surprisingly difficult to break down. Group G with Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand: Iran can finish second. They beat Wales and drew with England at WC 2022. The pedigree is real. Totals: UNDER — Ghalenoei's system squeezes the life out of games.
Key Scorers
Mehdi Taremi · 48g
Olympiacos…
Ali Alipour · 12g
Persepolis…
Mohammad Mohebi · 8g
Rostov…
Key Creators
- Mehdi Taremi · Centre forward
- Saman Ghoddos · Attacking midfielder
- Alireza Jahanbakhsh · Right midfielder
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Mehdi Taremi
- Free Kicks
- Alireza Jahanbakhsh / Saman Ghoddos
- Corners
- Alireza Jahanbakhsh (delivery) / Mehdi Taremi, Hossein Kanaanizadegan (aerial targets)
Aerial Threats
- Mehdi Taremi — 6'1"…
- Hossein Kanaanizadegan — Centre back, 6'3"…
Tactical Notes
Iran are seriously dangerous at this price. Ghalenoei has constructed a 4-3-3 that morphs into a 4-5-1 out of possession — disciplined, physical, and hard to break down. Taremi and Ghoddos are both capable of hurting defenses at World Cup level. Group G: Belgium have De Bruyne/Lukaku but are an aging side — Iran beat Morocco (a better team) at WC 2022. Egypt are the comparable opponent they should beat. New Zealand are the gimme. The path to the Round of 16 is real. MD1 RESULT (Jun 15, vs New Zealand, 2-2 draw): twice pegged back at SoFi Stadium — Ramin Rezaeian (32') and Mohammad Mohebbi (64') answered Elijah Just's brace. The under (4 goals) missed badly. Dropped two points to the group's lowest seed; Hajsafi booked (89'). A win was there — finishing and game-management cost them.
Qual
7-4-3
GF
18
GA
12
Who is favored in Belgium vs Iran?
Belgium and Iran meet in Group G at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-21 at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles. Our simulation gives Belgium a clear edge — a 36-point win probability gap separating these sides. Belgium enters with a 100% advancement probability in our model vs Iran at 0%. This shapes up as a tighter, lower-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals is the lean based on defensive profiles and group stage conservative tactics. Top value play: Lukaku anytime scorer.
Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that’s where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →
For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.
Belgium’s Other Matches
Iran’s Other Matches
Other Group G Matches
What would change this model? A late star-player injury, a manager change inside six weeks of kickoff, or a major surface/venue surprise. The simulation re-runs nightly — see the methodology — and we republish whenever match-level residuals move more than a couple of points.
Run the Numbers
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