Fed odds on Oct 28, 2026
What Kalshi, Polymarket.com and fed funds futures priced for the Dec 8–9, 2026 FOMC decision at the latest capture today. The favorite was a 25bp hike at 74.0% on Kalshi, 2.5 points from Polymarket.com. Live Dec 9 odds →
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket.com | Fed funds futures (implied) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50bp+ cut | 0.5% | 0.4% | — |
| 25bp cut | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Hold | 24.5% | 20.5% | 15.5% |
| 25bp hike | 74.0% | 76.5% | 84.6% |
| 50bp+ hike | 4.5% | 2.3% | — |
Each venue's close on this UTC day. “—” is no price, never 0% — the futures leg cannot express a 50bp move. Polymarket.com is the international book. Futures are a derived probability, never a contract price.
What printed that day
No scheduled Fed-moving release on Oct 28, 2026.
Data: Kalshi, Polymarket.com and fed funds futures, captured every 30 minutes by PredictionMarketsPicks — free with attribution at the CSV. Not a forecast; trade responsibly.