Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in September 2026?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BLS-reported CPI 12-month inflation rate for the period ending September 2026 exceeds 4.4% (strictly greater than), as measured to one decimal place.

• Strictly above 4.4%, not at or above — The rule says 'more than 4.4%', so a reading of exactly 4.4% resolves NO — traders positioned near the threshold must account for this strict inequality.
• One-decimal BLS print, not unrounded figure — Resolution uses the one-decimal place value officially reported by BLS (e.g., 4.4% or 4.5%), not the more precise underlying figure, so the rounding in BLS's release — not the raw calculation — is what determines the outcome.
• Initial release only vs. later revisions — CPI data can be subject to revision; the rules do not explicitly clarify whether the first print or a subsequent revised print governs, creating ambiguity if BLS revises the September 2026 figure after initial release.
• September 2026 ending month, not full-year average — This contract measures the 12-month change ending specifically in September 2026 (a point-in-time year-over-year reading), not an annual average CPI figure, which could diverge meaningfully from a calendar-year average.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXCPIYOY settlement rules →