Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in September 2026?

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BLS-reported CPI 12-month percentage change for the period ending September 2026 exceeds 4.5%, using the one-decimal-place figure published by the BLS.

• One-decimal place rounding is decisive — The contract uses the BLS's rounded one-decimal figure (e.g., 4.5% stays NO, but 4.6% is YES), so the raw unrounded rate is irrelevant — a true inflation rate of 4.549% would still resolve NO.
• "Above" 4.5% excludes exactly 4.5% — The threshold is strictly greater than 4.5%, meaning a printed BLS figure of exactly 4.5% resolves NO, not YES — a key distinction for positions near the boundary.
• Initial release vs. revised print not specified — The rules don't clarify whether the first BLS release or a subsequent revision governs; if the BLS revises the figure after initial publication, traders are exposed to ambiguity about which print settles the contract.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXCPIYOY settlement rules →