Who will win Colombia vs Uzbekistan at the 2026 World Cup?

Our 10,000-simulation model gives Colombia a 39% win probability, with 25% chance of a draw and 36% for Uzbekistan. Top value play: Colombia to win.

Will Colombia vs Uzbekistan go over 2.5 goals?

Our simulation projects this match as an Over 2.5 goals lean based on both teams' attacking output and defensive profiles.

GROUP KMATCHDAY 3

Colombia vs Uzbekistan: World Cup 2026 Prediction

2026-06-25 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

Colombia vs Uzbekistan — World Cup 2026 Group K prediction graphic

10,000 Sim Result

39%Colombia+156

25%Draw+300

36%Uzbekistan+178

Over 2.5: Yes ✓BTTS: No

Top Value Play

Colombia to win

Colombia

Odds+6567

Advance %93.8%

Win title %1.5%

Uzbekistan

Odds+99999

Advance %33.7%

Win title %0%

Match Analysis

Colombia and Uzbekistan meet in Group K at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-25 at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. This is one of the tighter matches in Group K. The simulation sees these teams as closely matched, with just a 3-point spread. Colombia enters with a 93.8% advancement probability in our model vs Uzbekistan at 33.7%. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Top value play: Colombia to win.

Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that's where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →

For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.