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KalshiMacro & economics

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 5.0% for the year ending in September 2026?

2c

YES · 2% implied

10K

contracts 24h

10K

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Resolves YES if the BLS-reported CPI 12-month inflation rate for September 2026, rounded to one decimal place, is above 5.0% (i.e., 5.1% or higher).

  • One-decimal BLS print, not raw figureThe contract explicitly uses the one-decimal place value the BLS publishes, so a raw computed rate of, say, 5.049% that rounds to 5.0% would resolve NO, not YES.
  • Threshold is strictly above 5.0%, not atA reading of exactly 5.0% (as printed by BLS) does NOT resolve YES — the rate must exceed 5.0%, meaning 5.1% is the minimum qualifying print.
  • Initial release vs. revised dataThe rules cite the BLS-reported figure but don't specify whether a subsequent revision would be used; if the BLS revises its September 2026 CPI print after initial release, it is unclear which print governs settlement.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXCPIYOY settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

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