KalshiMacro & economics
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 5.0% for the year ending in September 2026?
2c
YES · 2% implied
10K
contracts 24h
10K
open interest (contracts)
How this settles
Resolves YES if the BLS-reported CPI 12-month inflation rate for September 2026, rounded to one decimal place, is above 5.0% (i.e., 5.1% or higher).
- One-decimal BLS print, not raw figure — The contract explicitly uses the one-decimal place value the BLS publishes, so a raw computed rate of, say, 5.049% that rounds to 5.0% would resolve NO, not YES.
- Threshold is strictly above 5.0%, not at — A reading of exactly 5.0% (as printed by BLS) does NOT resolve YES — the rate must exceed 5.0%, meaning 5.1% is the minimum qualifying print.
- Initial release vs. revised data — The rules cite the BLS-reported figure but don't specify whether a subsequent revision would be used; if the BLS revises its September 2026 CPI print after initial release, it is unclear which print governs settlement.
Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXCPIYOY settlement rules →
24h move: +0.0c
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