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KalshiMacro & economics

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in October?

37c

YES · 37% implied

951

contracts 24h

683

open interest (contracts)

How this settles

Resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted BLS Core CPI (All Urban Consumers, All Items less Food and Energy) for October 2026 rises by MORE THAN 0.2% (strictly above, not equal to).

  • Strictly above 0.2%, not at or aboveThe rules say 'above 0.2%,' so an exact +0.2% print (a common rounded outcome) resolves NO, which could catch traders who assume ≥0.2% triggers YES.
  • Seasonally adjusted print onlyBLS publishes both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted Core CPI figures; only the seasonally adjusted series is specified, and the two can differ enough to flip the outcome.
  • No revision language — initial vs. revised print unclearBLS sometimes revises CPI figures; the rules don't specify whether the first release or a later revision governs, creating settlement ambiguity if a revision crosses the 0.2% threshold.
  • October 2026, not October 2025The resolution year is 2026 (reported ~November 2026), so traders focused on the near-term October 2025 release are tracking the wrong data point entirely.

Rules read for this specific contract. Full KXCPICORE settlement rules →

24h move: +0.0c

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