Mispricing Scanner
A Bayesian engine scans prediction markets daily for mispricings. Agent A finds the same event on the other platform (LLM-validated) and compares the price — when a validated twin exists. Agent B is Claude NLP estimating probability from the question. When the engine diverges from the market by 5pp+, the contract is flagged with Kelly sizing; 3–5pp near-misses go to a free watchlist band.
Runs every morning; results post by ~10 AM ET. How it works →
Quick Answer
the Mispricing Scanner publishes a Kalshi contract only when the same event is found on the other platform and a resolution-criteria check confirms the two prices are comparable. That check has not cleared across the full scan history, so the board is currently empty — the standalone model estimate that used to fill it did not beat the market price when reviewed against settled results, and is no longer graded or published. The tool is being rebuilt for the 2026 midterms as a markets-versus-pundits tracker.
If you're asking whether Kalshi/Polymarket mispricing flags actually pay out: the scanner flags markets where its Bayesian engine diverges from the platform price by 5pp or more. HIGH CONFIDENCE requires 8pp+ and a validated same-event twin on the other platform pulling the same direction — most contracts have no such twin, so many days produce no HIGH flags at all. That scarcity is the design. Everything else lands at MEDIUM or LOW, with a free 3–5pp watchlist band of forming edges below the flag bar. The Kelly fraction shown is quarter-Kelly, sized on a cost-adjusted entry price, not the headline edge.
Caveat: a flag is a signal to investigate, not a guaranteed trade. The engine now validates cross-platform matches with an LLM same-event gate, so the old “same name, different event” pairs are filtered out — but still read both contract pages and confirm the resolution criteria before sizing.
What Is the Mispricing Scanner?
The Mispricing Scanner is a daily automated scan of Kalshi and Polymarket binary markets. It publishes a contract only when the same event is listed on the other venue and a resolution-criteria check confirms both contracts settle on the same terms, so their prices can be compared at all. Without that confirmation there is no flag — two contracts with similar names and different settlement rules are not the same market.
Kalshi anchors the primary scan because it lists the broader set of contracts our other tools already cover, not because of any difference in legal access — both venues are open to US traders. A Polymarket price shown here comes from its international order book, a separate exchange from Polymarket US with its own liquidity and settlement, so the two are not interchangeable.
How It Works
For each platform: Agent A looks for the same event on the other platform — a title pre-filter, then an LLM gate confirming both contracts resolve on identical criteria before the prices are compared (no validated twin → no cross-reference). Agent B asks Claude for an independent probability estimate. Both feed into a Bayesian weighted average. Divergences of 5pp+ are flagged and 3–5pp near-misses go to the free watchlist band; HIGH CONFIDENCE needs 8pp+ and a validated twin agreeing, which is why it is rare.
When to Use This Tool
Check the scanner in the morning once the day's scan has posted — usually by 10 AM ET. HIGH CONFIDENCE flags are the priority when there are any; otherwise work the widest divergences down. Verify the cross-platform match is the same event, check for overnight news that could explain the gap, then size with the quarter-Kelly fraction shown. This is a signal to investigate, not a guaranteed trade.
Read the Methodology
The scanner's design decisions are written up in full, including the ones that make the board publish less rather than more: how the Polymarket Mispricing Scanner works is the place to start. From there, what HIGH CONFIDENCE actually requires explains why that tier is rare by construction, and why the scanner fails closed covers what happens when the model cannot reach a confident estimate — it publishes nothing instead of guessing. If you are weighing whether any of this is tradeable at all, why most prediction market arbitrage isn't real is the honest version of the answer.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Find markets where the crowd got it wrong
What is this?
The crowd is often right. But not always. This scanner identifies prediction market contracts where the price seems significantly out of line with real-world data — news, historical base rates, or statistical models.
Think of it as a lie detector for market prices. When a market is way overpriced or underpriced relative to reality, this flags it. You still have to decide — but this gives you the shortlist of where to look.
Real-World Example
→ The Flag
Historical data shows government shutdowns resolve within 14 days 84% of the time. A market asks "Shutdown lasts more than 21 days" — priced at 55¢ (the crowd thinks 55% likely). That's a mispricing signal.
The scanner flags the gap: historical base rate says this should be worth about 16¢, not 55¢. You buy NO at 45¢ (inverse of YES at 55¢) and wait.
✅Action: Use this as your daily deal-finder. Look for anything flagged more than 15 points from the estimated fair value.
Bottom line: The crowd panics, overreacts, and misprices markets every day. This helps you catch it.
Full guide →Live engines, graded automatically at Kalshi settlement — winners and losers, never edited.
- Bitcoin Edge899 graded59% win+$49.66 netlast 30d +78¢avg CLV +1.3pp
- Oil Edge583 graded47% win+$7.35 netlast 30d −85¢
- Gold Edge504 graded61% win+$33.92 netlast 30d −$2.71
- Silver Edge413 graded58% win+$41.75 netlast 30d −$1.82
- Weather Edge215 graded31% win−$6.38 netlast 30d −$1.19
- Arb Scanner60 graded45% win+$1.32 netlast 30d +$1.05
Loading today's scan
Checking Bayesian engine results...
Read the fine print
Half the edge in prediction markets is knowing exactly how a contract resolves. We read the official resolution rules of the markets traders care about and flag the traps — which data print counts, the exact metric, rounding, and settlement timing.
Today's trapXRP 15 MinuteResolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSDRTI ending just before the later settlement time is greater than or equal to the 60-second simple average ending just before the earlier settlement time (15 minutes prior) on the settlement date.3 traps
- CF Benchmarks XRPUSDRTI is the sole source — Resolution uses CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index (XRPUSDRTI) exclusively — not spot prices from any exchange — so divergence between XRPUSDRTI and exchange prices can mislead a trader's directional read.
- 60-second simple average, not spot price — Each 'price' is the arithmetic mean of exactly sixty one-second XRPUSDRTI prints before the cut-off, so a brief spike or dip right at the window edge has less impact than a trader watching a single spot price might expect.
- Resolves YES on exact equality (≥, not >) — The threshold is 'at least' (≥), meaning if both 60-second averages are identical the contract resolves YES, not NO — a non-obvious outcome in a flat market.
Bitcoin price up downResolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI ending just before the later settlement time is greater than or equal to the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI ending just before the earlier settlement time on the settlement date.4 traps
- CF Benchmarks BRTI — not spot price — Resolution uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), not any exchange's spot price; discrepancies between BRTI and exchange prices can affect whether the position resolves as expected.
- 60-second simple average, not a single print — Each reference price is the arithmetic mean of sixty one-second BRTI values, so a brief spike or dip in Bitcoin's spot price in the final seconds may not move the average enough to change the outcome.
- "At least" makes equality resolve YES — The comparison is ≥, so if both 60-second averages are identical the contract resolves YES, not NO — a tie favours the long side.
- Seconds window is "before" the timestamp — The 60 seconds used are those immediately preceding each named time (not including or starting at it), so the exact second-boundary definition matters when the averages are close.
Bitcoin rangeEach contract resolves on the simple average of the 60 one-second prints of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in the minute before the top of the hour: YES if that average is above, below, or inside the contract's price range (depending on the variant). A new event settles every hour, around the clock, and the contract text names the hour.4 traps
- BRTI 60-second simple average, not spot price — Resolution uses the arithmetic mean of exactly 60 one-second BRTI values ending at the top of the settlement hour — a single instantaneous Bitcoin price at that moment is irrelevant and could differ materially from the average.
- Strict boundary comparisons — endpoints matter — Variant 1 requires strictly above the threshold (so hitting it exactly resolves NO), Variant 2 requires strictly below its threshold (same risk), and Variant 3 uses an inclusive range up to x.99 — a trader must check whether the averaged value clears the boundary strictly or lands exactly on it.
- Every hour is its own event — check the hour and the timezone — Events settle hourly and the contract text names the hour in Eastern time; any clock or feed displaying UTC or another timezone could cause a trader to misidentify the relevant 60-second window.
- CF Benchmarks BRTI is the sole data source — Only CF Benchmarks' official BRTI publication governs resolution — prices from other exchanges, aggregators, or index providers (e.g., CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate) are irrelevant even if they show different values at the same moment.
Bitcoin price Above/belowEach contract resolves YES if the simple average of the 60 one-second prints of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in the minute before the top of the hour is strictly above the strike at that hour. A new event settles every hour, around the clock, and the contract text names the hour (e.g. 5 PM EDT).4 traps
- Strict 'above' — hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — The rules require the average to be above X.99 (e.g. above 77699.99 / 86249.99), so a BRTI average landing exactly on the threshold value fails the condition and resolves NO.
- CF Benchmarks BRTI is the sole data source — Only CF Benchmarks' BRTI is used — no other Bitcoin price feed or exchange price counts, so discrepancies between BRTI and other indices are irrelevant to settlement.
- 60-second average, not a spot print — Settlement uses the simple average of the 60 individual one-second BRTI values immediately before the cut-off, not any single spot price, so a momentary spike or dip through the threshold does not determine the outcome.
- The price at :00 is not the settle — A chart showing bitcoin above the strike at exactly the top of the hour can still settle NO if the 60 one-second prints before it averaged lower. Check the average over the final minute, and the hour named in your contract — every hour is its own event.
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in November 2026?Resolves YES if the BLS-reported CPI 12-month percentage change for November 2026 is above 4.2% when expressed to one decimal place.3 traps
- One-decimal place BLS print is binding — The contract explicitly uses the one-decimal-place value published by the BLS — not the unrounded or two-decimal figure — so a reading of 4.18% that rounds to 4.2% would NOT resolve YES, since 4.2 is not strictly above 4.2.
- Strict 'above' threshold, not 'at or above' — Resolution requires CPI to be MORE THAN 4.2%, meaning an exact one-decimal print of 4.2% fails to trigger YES, making the boundary razor-thin for positions near that level.
- Initial release vs. revised BLS data — Rules reference the BLS reported value but don't specify whether it's the initial November 2026 release or a later revision, which could matter if the BLS subsequently revises the figure across the 4.2% threshold.
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in December 2026?Resolves YES if the BLS-reported CPI 12-month percent change for December 2026 is strictly above 4.6% when expressed to one decimal place.3 traps
- One decimal place, not raw figure — The contract uses the BLS's one-decimal-place rounded print (e.g., 4.6% vs. 4.64%), so a raw unrounded figure above 4.60% could still resolve NO if it rounds down to 4.6% — and the threshold is strictly *above* 4.6%, meaning the rounded print must be at least 4.7% to resolve YES.
- Strictly above, not at or above — The rule says 'more than 4.6%,' so an exact one-decimal print of 4.6% resolves NO — the printed value must be 4.7% or higher.
- Initial release vs. later revisions ignored — CPI data can be revised; the rules specify the BLS-reported value but do not clarify whether the first release or a subsequent revision governs, which could matter if a revision changes the rounded print.
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?Resolves YES if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate, as published on the Federal Reserve's official website, is strictly greater than 2.25% after the April 28, 2027 FOMC meeting.4 traps
- Strictly greater than, not greater-or-equal — An upper bound of exactly 2.25% does NOT resolve YES — the rate must be above 2.25%, so a position holder riding a rate at precisely 2.25% would lose.
- April 28 meeting must actually occur — If the Fed reschedules, cancels, or holds no meeting on that date, resolution could be delayed or voided depending on platform rules, since the trigger is explicitly tied to that specific meeting.
- Upper bound only — not the target midpoint or lower bound — The Fed sets a target range (e.g., 4.25%–4.50%); only the upper bound is used for resolution, so traders must track the top of the range, not the effective rate or the midpoint.
- Fed's official website is the sole data source — Only the rate as published on federalreserve.gov counts — other sources (CME, Bloomberg, press releases) are irrelevant if there is any discrepancy or publication delay.
Will above 40000 jobs be added in September 2026?Resolves YES if the BLS Monthly Employment Situation Report shows total non-farm payroll employment increased by more than 40,000 in September 2026.3 traps
- Initial print vs. later revisions — BLS revises payroll figures in subsequent months; the rules don't specify which release (advance, first revision, second revision) is used, creating ambiguity about which print triggers settlement.
- Strict 'above' threshold — 40,000 excluded — The rule uses 'above 40,000,' meaning an exact print of +40,000 resolves NO; traders long YES need the number to be at least +40,001.
- September 2026 report release timing — The September 2026 jobs report is typically released in early October 2026, so the contract won't settle in September — positions remain open until that October release date.
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in September?Resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change in BLS Core CPI (All Urban Consumers, All Items less Food and Energy) for September 2026 is strictly greater than 0.4%.4 traps
- Strictly above 0.4%, not at or above — The rule says 'above 0.4%', so an exact print of +0.4% resolves NO — a trader long YES needs the number to exceed, not merely meet, the threshold.
- Seasonally adjusted series only — BLS publishes both seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) Core CPI figures; only the SA print governs, and the two can differ meaningfully.
- No revision clause specified — The rules don't clarify whether the initial release or a subsequent BLS revision is used — if a revision moves the print across the 0.4% threshold, resolution could be disputed or locked in at the first print.
- Rounded vs. unrounded BLS figure — BLS typically reports the monthly change to one decimal place (e.g., 0.4%), but the underlying unrounded figure could be 0.35–0.44%; if the market uses the rounded headline it may differ from a more precise calculation.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Frequently Asked Questions
Which Kalshi binary markets are mispriced right now?
None that we are willing to publish. A contract only reaches this board when the same event is found on the other platform and an LLM gate confirms both contracts resolve on identical criteria before their prices are compared. Measured across the full scan history, that validated cross-platform check has not once completed — most Kalshi contracts simply have no Polymarket twin resolving on the same criterion. We used to fill the gap with a standalone language-model probability estimate and call the difference an edge. Reviewed against settled results, that estimate did not beat the market price, so it is no longer graded and no longer published. An empty board is the honest output of that rule, not an outage.
What is the Kalshi mispricing scanner?
A daily automated scan of Kalshi and Polymarket binary markets, looking for contracts trading away from a price that can be independently corroborated. The only corroboration it now accepts is a validated same-event twin on the other platform: a title pre-filter narrows candidates, then an LLM gate confirms both contracts settle on the same criterion before any price comparison happens. No validated twin means no flag. The tool is being rebuilt for the 2026 midterms as a markets-versus-pundits tracker, which compares the live market price against named forecasters and ratings outlets instead of against a model of our own.
Do Kalshi vs Polymarket mispricing flags actually pay out?
We stopped claiming they do. The scanner's original thesis was that our probability model could out-predict a liquid market. Checked against settled outcomes by price band, the claimed win rate exceeded the actual win rate in every band — the model was not beating the market, it was disagreeing with it. Rather than retune a losing signal, the tool now grades nothing that lacks a validated cross-platform price check, and publishes nothing it will not grade. The rebuilt version inverts the claim entirely: the market price becomes the benchmark and named pundits are the comparison, which is a scoreboard rather than a trade signal.
How does the scanner engine detect mispricings?
It compares a contract's price against a corroborating price for the same event on the other venue. A title pre-filter narrows candidates, then an LLM gate confirms both contracts resolve on the same event and criterion — without that confirmation there is no cross-reference and no flag, because two contracts with similar names and different settlement rules are not the same market and their prices are not comparable. The engine previously also weighted in a standalone language-model estimate; that input no longer produces a published flag on its own.
Why is the mispricing board empty?
Because the gate that would put something on it has not cleared. A flag requires a validated same-event twin on the other platform, and across the entire scan history no scanned Kalshi contract has had one that passed the resolution-criteria check. The alternative — publishing our model's disagreement with the market as though it were an edge — is exactly what the settled record showed did not work. Showing nothing is the correct output of an honest rule, and the board will refill only if the cross-platform check starts clearing.
Is the Mispricing Scanner free to use?
The board itself is a Pro tool at $14.99 per month, though it is currently publishing nothing while the tool is rebuilt for the midterms. The free tools — EV Calculator, Probability Converter, and Combo Edge Builder — cover the core math if you want to check a single contract yourself, and the Combo Edge Builder is fully free with no leg cap.
What is the difference between the Kalshi scan and the Polymarket scan?
They swap which venue anchors the price check: the Kalshi scan looks for the corroborating price on Polymarket, and the Polymarket scan looks for it on Kalshi. Kalshi is the primary scan because it lists a broader set of US-available contracts and its markets are the ones our other tools already cover — not because of any difference in legal access. Both venues are open to US traders. Note that a Polymarket price we quote comes from its international order book, which is a separate exchange from Polymarket US and does not share its liquidity or settlement, so the two prices are not interchangeable.