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Home/How it settles/Bitcoin price Above/below
CryptoKXBTCD

How Kalshi settles Bitcoin price Above/below

Reviewed by Benny Ricciardi

Rules last read

Settles YES when

Each contract resolves YES if the simple average of the 60 one-second prints of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in the minute before the top of the hour is strictly above the strike at that hour. A new event settles every hour, around the clock, and the contract text names the hour (e.g. 5 PM EDT).

4 resolution traps in the KXBTCD rules

The wording that changes how or when the contract settles — which data source and which print, the exact metric, rounding, date boundaries, void conditions.

Bitcoin price Above/below
Each contract resolves YES if the simple average of the 60 one-second prints of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in the minute before the top of the hour is strictly above the strike at that hour. A new event settles every hour, around the clock, and the contract text names the hour (e.g. 5 PM EDT).
4 traps
  • Strict 'above' — hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — The rules require the average to be above X.99 (e.g. above 77699.99 / 86249.99), so a BRTI average landing exactly on the threshold value fails the condition and resolves NO.
  • CF Benchmarks BRTI is the sole data source — Only CF Benchmarks' BRTI is used — no other Bitcoin price feed or exchange price counts, so discrepancies between BRTI and other indices are irrelevant to settlement.
  • 60-second average, not a spot print — Settlement uses the simple average of the 60 individual one-second BRTI values immediately before the cut-off, not any single spot price, so a momentary spike or dip through the threshold does not determine the outcome.
  • The price at :00 is not the settle — A chart showing bitcoin above the strike at exactly the top of the hour can still settle NO if the 60 one-second prints before it averaged lower. Check the average over the final minute, and the hour named in your contract — every hour is its own event.

KXBTCD contracts open now

ContractYESImplied
Bitcoin price on Sep 28, 2026?72c72%
Bitcoin price on Sep 28, 2026?26c26%
Bitcoin price on Sep 28, 2026?94c94%
Bitcoin price on Sep 28, 2026?2c2%
Bitcoin price on Sep 28, 2026?99c99%
Bitcoin price on Sep 28, 2026?7c7%
Bitcoin price on Sep 28, 2026?1c1%
Bitcoin price on Sep 28, 2026?98c98%
Bitcoin price on Sep 28, 2026?99c99%
Bitcoin price on Sep 28, 2026?1c1%
Bitcoin price on Sep 28, 2026?99c99%
Bitcoin price on Sep 28, 2026?1c1%

A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.

Our record on KXBTCD

900

graded

533

won

59.0%

win rate

+$50.14

net

Net is a SUM over a flat one-contract stake — +5.6¢ per contract across 900. Full method and every graded position on the track record.

Go deeper

Read the official KXBTCD rules on Kalshi →All settlement rules →

Frequently Asked Questions

How does Kalshi settle Bitcoin price Above/below markets?

Each contract resolves YES if the simple average of the 60 one-second prints of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in the minute before the top of the hour is strictly above the strike at that hour. A new event settles every hour, around the clock, and the contract text names the hour (e.g. 5 PM EDT). That criterion is the whole contract — the headline question is a summary of it, not the rule itself.

What can go wrong when a Bitcoin price Above/below contract resolves?

We flag 4 traps in these rules. The first: Strict 'above' — hitting threshold exactly resolves NO — The rules require the average to be above X.99 (e.g. above 77699.99 / 86249.99), so a BRTI average landing exactly on the threshold value fails the condition and resolves NO.

What does the KXBTCD ticker mean?

KXBTCD is Kalshi's series ticker for Bitcoin price Above/below. Individual contracts append the event and the strike — so one series carries many contracts, all settling under the same rule. This page covers the rule; the board above lists the contracts open right now.

Do you have a record trading Bitcoin price Above/below?

Yes — 900 graded positions on KXBTCD: 533 won, 367 lost, +$50.14 net at one contract per signal (+5.6¢ per contract).

This is our reading of Kalshi’s published resolution rules, not a substitute for them — read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only, not financial advice.