Survivor 50 Twists Breakdown: Handcuffs, Fake Idols and Market Moves | Kalshi, Polymarket

[music] Hello everybody and welcome to the antenna, your favorite show [music] about shows. Dane Martinez, what's going on? I'm Nando Defino. We have a Survivor 50. I wouldn't call it a shakeup day. Well, Dan, let me start with this [music] on the show today. I think we're going to talk about and you would jump in whenever you'd like, but like Aubrey's odds are down. Uh again, some odds are not going up on Cali, but on Poly Market, they're inching up a little bit more and more. like just slowly inching up. Okay, the actual show and maybe you'll disagree with me and maybe we should start here. You know, we do the MVP and LVP. I just want to start with this. Was last night's twist finally a good twist in Survivor 50. All the rest of them seem so dumb and boring and pointless. This one was kind of cool and it reminded me of those parties in college where you were handcuffed to someone and you had to drink like 12 beers between the two of you until you get unhanded. Yeah. So, I'm with you. I think you and I have both been planting the flag of the reason we love Survivor is the art of war of it all, the gameplay of it all. Right. Do we care that an idol is titled Billy Isish? No. Do we care about Zack Brown spearfishing? No. But this was the first twist that complicated actual gameplay, right? And so, yeah, I was all about it. I thought there were a couple of things in this episode that I was all about from our gameplay stat, you know, kind of lens, right? The twist about being linked to the pair was awesome. They talked about it. You know, it led to Chrissy trying to put coach in timeout, which unfortunately was still unsuccessful. It led to kind of the idea of, well, I really want to get this person out, but they're tied to this person, so they're in my alliance, and I couldn't. Just like the different minations of the strategy. So yeah, I thought that was a good twist. I thought it was the first time it ever happened. And the other gameplay thing that I thought was awesome is Devons went for the fake idol and tribal and like we had talked about this like it was definitely going to come into play. They were teasing it on social media coming into it and quite frankly I think it worked because Deans and Aubrey were on the block, right? There are a lot of people talking about that and I think, you know, him making that show of it was just enough to maybe throw a couple of votes off of them and onto Chrissy and Coach. So, I really like this episode for a number of reasons. The the pair twist, I think, to your point, was legit. They actually did the gameplay part of the fake idol at Tribal. And then I have some thoughts on Siri as well and kind of her up and down and story. And I know you're big on her, but we can get into that a little bit. I'm big on her at 19% to win it. I'm still not sold that she's going to win it. But like we bought at 10 and she's 19 now and I think it'll get to like 67. You know what I mean? Like that's how I'm big. And also I love Si. Like I went from her like being like, "Oh my god, here we go again. She's on every show in the entire universe." to being like, "Oh, but I see why I like her a lot." Yeah. But that's the thing. And you're big on also who's getting a good edit, who's getting a bad edit. She is getting the best edit of all time. I mean, f, you know, her flipping over the coconuts and the flashbacks to, you know, when she walked across the beam stretching herself physically and how she was part of the biggest blind side with kid Eric throwing the the giving the idol away and all that, right? And then when she gets back to the island, right, that conversation where Azie is like, "Oh my god, thank God for Seree because I would have gone the other way." But she was so brilliant. And then even Aubrey saying, "Yo, Si has the ability to change the vote." And Rizzo being like, "Yeah, we need Sere. She's my calvary." Right. So to me, I I I appreciate the way you framed it because there's clearly energy behind Siri in our conversation. She has gone up from 10 to 20, but quite frankly, because she is so well-liked, because everyone sees her bonafites, shall we say, she's not going to win, man. So to me, to me it is about picking the right point to cash out on Si. I don't think she's going to win. They're gonna eventually at some point everybody's going to say because eventually when we get down to the jury's gonna but the jury's gonna the jury's going to love her. So the in respect and I think like especially now like the three that are in there right now at least like D I don't know. She's kind of a wild card to me, but like Azie and Chrissy I could definitely see being like Sri's earned this like her lifetime record. Absolutely. But that's exactly the reason you're already fast forward to final three. What I'm talking about is at you know five or six the other people still playing against Siri are going to be like we can't allow Sie to get to the final because of what you're talking about. the jury will either love her, want to give her the Lifetime Achievement Award, or whatever. And so, we're at 11 right now. Once we get to, you know, five, six, seven, the episodes, like directly before the final tribal, I believe it is going to be common knowledge and everyone is going to start talking. We can't let Siri get there because she will beat us at the end, right? But then again, all it takes is one well-played idol. So fair, but I just think she will become such a huge social threat that there will definitely be energy to get her out. And so I think she's not going to win. And you know, from the kind of trader perspective on this, the best move is to find the window to cash out. You know, she's at 20 right now. Will she get to 45? Cool. But as she continues to inch up, you're gonna have to cut bait and cash out at the right moment because I don't think she's actually winning. So, uh, just to recap real quick or it's a cap. Um, Aubry's down to 69% on Cal. These are the Cali numbers and I'll jump over to Poly Market. Yeah, because they got some interesting ones. I mean, they're kind of running side by side, but Aubry's at 69. Siri's currently at 20. We're taping this Thursday morning at 10:15 [clears throat] Eastern. Rizzo's four, Joe Hunter is three, and Jonathan is three. Yep. Over on Poly Market, Aubry 69's 319. Uh, Rizzo four, Jonathan 4, Joe three. Our guy Azie 2%. Yeah. Everyone else at one. I mean, there are like some tiny things like Christian's 0.6 whereas Emily's 0.2, you know, but like whatever. But Aussiey's finally Aussiey's getting a little Aussie got $56,000 of a $1.1 million market. Um, which isn't so bad. You know, I think with Aussie, there's two things in his favor. One, I think in the edit it showed that he's like, you know, I even saw this on social media being like after four or five times and 20 years of playing, Aussiey's finally getting strategic, you know, and that sort of thing. So, I think that's one that's a positive that he's not he realizes just like, you know, providing fish ain't going to cut it, dude. And the other thing is I really believe that at this point the most cohesive dominant group Azie is a part of. And I think it's Azie, Siri, Rizzo. I think that's the main three that are like sharing all the information that are completely locked in. Azie, Siri, and Rizzo. And then I think people like Tiff and Steph are and Emily are part of their crew but are are the understudies, the numbers, right? The low men and women on that totem pole. But I think that we're at 11, that's the dominant group. I just worry like Game of Thrones style. Like I I think the entire world if you're like who are the good guys? You're like, "Oh, it's Aussie, Siri, and Rizzo." You know what I mean? Like it's though that's and that just makes good TV to watch them just boom boom boom one by one. I just hope it's not soon as a very just a strictly greedy well you know it's for good it's good for the show too. Um for them to last longer and for their stock prices to keep going up even if it's slowly. I mean there's a lot of time left in the show. Uh, you know, I would like to see it last, but it just worries me a little bit that like I don't want to conflate rooting for a good edit with good gameplay. Right now, I don't think it's a problem because they have where they have between them, they have an idol, an extra vote, and Rizzo has the boomerang, right? Like they have they have two idols and an extra vote. Yeah. But also, I mean, you know, let's just do the straight math. We're out 11. Yeah. We're at 11. And I just named six that I think are tied together. Yeah. that can dominate you with the main three being Rizzo, Siri, Azie, but then in their crew can easily be Tiff, Stephanie, and Emily. And that's six, you know, and I think if they are smart enough, they can, you know, clip off the Christians, the Jonathans, the Devons of the world and get to that next stage of the game. And let's play this out even further. Yeah. Once, let's say I'm completely right, you know, then when that happens, the people like Steph, Emily, uh, you know, even Azie are going to be like, "Oh, snap. We got to get rid of Siri." Yeah. Yep. You're right. So, that's the path I see. And that's why what I'm looking for is, you know, how can 50% plus one easily come together? And when you have 11, you need five or six. And I see a loose group of five or six that believe in each other. The idea like the Devons, Joe, Jonathan, Hubiki kind of group, Aubrey even, they don't seem as, you know, loosely connected as this six I'm talking about. Uh, let me ask you this. Well, actually, no, forget it. Let's move on to the MVP LVP. Um, let's start with the LVP and let me let me just I It's Jonathan for me again. M I'm sick of Jonathan. That's all. I liked him in the season. Now it just feels so like put on and grading and annoying and this Mr. Jeff stuff. Uh I can't I can't anymore. Yeah, I hear you. I think he's um going to at trying to have an evolution that is almost like part Aussie, part coach, you know, trying to be more strategic, trying to have a little bit more relationshipy, but um it really to your point, I think it was last week, you know, how he tried to trigger D, right? And he's trying to do some of that that I don't think will ultimately work out for him. And then I just think he's burning bridges. Like you don't really see him having any relationship with any females necessarily, right? You know, and I think that's going to be, you know, kind of a losing strategy. The only female he had any kind of talks with was Chrissy and now she's gone. Yeah. Is he your LVP as well or do you have someone else? Um, you know, yes. I think I think that that No one really fumbled No one really fumbled this show, right? Like it was such a weird gameplay getting handcuffed to someone too. Like you know Yeah. I I agree. You know like it would continue to be kind of if we can't say coach because he was gone on some level it was Chrissy also because she tried to think that she could you know put coach in timeout or that Yeah. But what would you do? I mean you're tied to this guy who everybody hates. I think it was right, but I think she could have done it in a different way. And I think she kind of thought she was out over her skis as well. But for the people that were really are still live, I agree with you. Um, Jonathan would be my LVP because, you know, I'm already telling you the people I like. And then outside of that, everybody I think was just kind of like average or did things I would understand. Like Joe, I understood his moves. You know, I thought it was interesting that Christian who knew the idol plant was fake. Did you see them real quick? Like after after Deans goes and they're all whispering to each other, Christian was very clear to tell people, "I'm still voting Devons." You know, and and he he stopped short of like telling people it was a fake and I know it. [snorts] But he was like, "No, no, no. I'm still sticking with it." So that was interesting. But yeah, I don't have any other big LVPs. I'm with you. Jonathan is um almost getting a little bit too cocky. Big for his britches. Allah, coach, was your MVP Devons? I mean, it kind of has to be, right? Yeah. I mean, I thought that was a great move. I thought that was really a great move. I would say the other one, you know, I'm I'm really starting to think that people sleep on Rizzo at your own peril, man. Well, they're not anymore, right? Chrissy tried to warn them all. She knew it. She figured it out. Yeah. And but like Rizzo is, you know, what he says to the camera is one thing, right? But like he is positioned himself as Sri's number one, right? And that's going to get him real far. And I think that'll get him further than Si because everyone's going to be like, "We got to get Siri." And I think Rizzo is especially as a newcomer wild card that people don't know about. He I think is navigating it all really well. And he's the connective tissue to me. He's got the Serenazi, right? But then he also continues to talk with Emily. That's really important to have an, you know, so yes, my M MVP would definitely be the Devon's play. The fake idol I think may have saved his bacon, but like Rizzo Rizzo continues to navigate it. Well, you got to go buy a shirt in the RGOD store, the riz go RGOD. I mean, he's also he's also uh from the New York area, as am I. He's also like got the Albanian like come from nothing story. I respect that. Yeah. And like, you know, he's he's uh he's a cool newcomer. You know, a lot of these people have their Survivor legacies already. I think, you know, 10 years from now, people are going to be like, you know, Rizzo is establishing himself as among the top tier, you know, even more than say Savannah who won his season. You know what I mean? So, yeah. Yeah. I'm with I'm with Rizzo. Uh Dane, you you told me and again like today's Thursday. I think you told me Monday like the markets already know again, right? Like Yeah, they did. They did. Um they had Coach and Chrissy really high. And I gotta tell you something. As soon as the twist was like they're gonna pair up and I saw that coach and Chrissy were in fact the pair, I was like, "Oh man, they're on it." You know, cuz it was as soon as you saw that you would be voting out too and it was the two that were working together. The first thing I did was like, "Oh, is it Coach and Chrissy together?" And it was. I was like, "Yep, they're on it. That's it." So, we go bounce back back and forth. Last week it did not prove out to be true. Uh, this week it did. But we're we're getting down to 11. You know, it's it's crazy how how quick, right? There was a double elimination this week, blood moon, triple elimination, and they had to trim the fat real quick, and they found ways to do it. And now now we're down to 11. So, it's starting I think it's going to start getting real interesting. There will be more uh fan stuff and I am going to make a bold prediction. you are going to not like the fan stuff next week because I don't know if you saw in the coming attractions Jeff Probes is active in the challenge. Yeah, they're making Jeff Probes do something and like that'll be funny. That'll be different, but I don't think it'll impact pure gameplay. Dude, there's more proed main character syndrome, which is um although which could make the what will Jeff say market interesting, you know, to a degree if you have that kind of setup like kind of almost anything's on the table at that point. Um Dan, I was just looking this up if you heard the typing in the background. Um Wednesday, May 20th is the three-hour finale and today right before I mean like that's not there are not a lot of episodes left. How many weeks we got? Like five. Yeah. Well, I mean like it's a three-hour finale. Well, so I assume two of it is whatever in the last hour. Enter that episode with five or six left. Let's see. 2026 calendar. Here's my 20. I should know this off the top of my head, but I want to be sure. Um, all right. So, we're on April 16th. So, there's an episode on the 22nd, one, an episode on the 29th, an episode on the 6th, an episode on the 13th, and then the finale is on the 20th. So, right, 11. You can't go 11 10 98. That's where we're at. Correct. I think there'll be another two double eliminations, right? Cuz in four episodes, I think at at most going into a three-hour finale, they will have five people remaining because they got to get to four, then they got to get to three, then they got to do the whole big jury and all that stuff. Well, I could see it being I could see it being six, go down to five. firemaking challenge. Yeah. So, to your point though, right, four episodes before the finale, they've got to lop off, in my opinion, six people, in your opinion, five people. So, that means out of those four episodes, I think two of them will be double elimination, right? Maybe there's an evacuation. You know, sometimes that just slips in halfway, you know, some kind of medical thing. And they've done things before where they have that elimination like you know 30 minutes into the episode the first one which is like a very I think when it's very obvious when everyone's like we got to get this guy out uh that I I don't remember which season that happened in maybe like 38 or something but there was like a very obvious everyone was against this person and they just he was gone like that we're going to do a quick tribal and just dude was just gone everybody voted for him and then they like went on to the rest of the episode with the drama. I think what's most probably in play, especially with all this fan twist and all that stuff, is half of the episodes going forward are double elimination. Yeah. Which to be honest is a wrinkle, right? That is a strategic wrinkle that the players have not really had to deal with. And the way they do that, you know, whether it's pairs, whether it's we split you up into two tribes of five and both tribes are going to council, you know, that kind of thing. And that are the things that really mess with your ability to have a locked in group alliance, right? Um, that's what I think is more likely. Uh, in the notes, I'm going to skip your second to last one because we're gentlemen, but uh, Emily starting to lead I thought [laughter] Emily starting to lead I thought was interesting in a way like I mean I don't know how to read her at all, man. And I don't know like you we need like the big brother live feeds which I never watched and I would never watch for this but I'm sure someone could and be like the edit Emily is getting like belies the fact that she is you know either blabbing every single thing to everybody or she's been like you know planting false stuff lately because she's been blabbing everything and everyone thinks she's just you know telling the truth and letting secrets out and now like part of her gameplay was I've established that and now I'm going to start planting false information to my advantage. But I thought it was interesting that she was starting to lead a little bit. Yeah, I think I I I think that is fair. Um, and you know, she's one of like they're talking about these quote unquote middle players a lot, right? And I think that she has carved out a role to kind of maybe be depthly in the middle, which can get you to the next stage. Um, it's so insulting to call them the middle players like, right? I mean, listen, these are like legends of Survivor and you're like, "Oh, they're just floaters." You know? I mean, I I I like Not us. Like, they're saying that on the show. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Of course. I like some of our 1enters. I like our Emily at 1%. I like our Tiff at 1%. Um, you know, I I I know that you got Ser at 10, she's up to 20. I'm on Rizzo at four. He's been hovering there, but I still feel good about it. Our No Aubrey um looks a lot better. We got No Aubry at 12. No Aubrey is now at 31. So I mean that's really the biggest gain, right? Even your Sheree from 10 to 20, that's 2x. Our our no Aubrey going from 12 to 31 is like two and a half times the percentage that we were at. So it just keeps going down. She just keeps going. It's like a you know like a it's not a sharp decline. It's like every day 2% gets lpped off. Yeah. Absolutely. And I think I think our 1% of Emily and Tiff are in are in a decent shape because at some point they have to make all the 1% people they've got to make them all 4%. Like once we get to eight people left on the show, right? Or something like that. And I do think, you know, I I I do think we have some good ones. Like I'd be I'd rather be holding Emily and Tiff right now than than uh Jonathan or Deans, to be honest. Yeah. Uh, you know, Deans is that move was genius, man. It really was. I wonder if he thought of that like three years ago and he was like, "When I get back, this is what I'm gonna do." Or did Christian come up with it? I like it. It's It was very unclear like the genesis. It was only able to happen because Christian still had like the rapping. Yeah. Yeah. To make it look real. Like you can't just make one out of beads and string and arts and crafts and do it. He had the rapping and that's what I think inspired him to do You could you could do it just be like it's the T pay idol, you know, like. Right. Right. Right. Yeah. But I think uh no, I think that was Devon's idea and it only happened when Christian showed him that he still had the, you know, legitimate rapping from his from the Billy Eyish. Yeah, I did like how they were like even when he was reluctant to show it, that should have set off some alarms, I think, and everyone should have still voted for him. Yeah. And then he told AR, he was like, I have to take it from it for it to be active or whatever. So like he even came up with a good story there. Like what if he's going to keep it going? Or was it just going to be like a fool y'all? Well, he can't because Christian knows it's BS. Yeah, but I don't know if Christian would keep that secret though. Maybe. Maybe. If if they're still on the same side of things. I don't know. They have to be at this point, right? They have to be. They have no choice. There's a three and a three and then them. You would think so. You would think so, but um you know, I'm not so sure. All right. Anyway, um Dane, if you I mean, like I haven't at all like looked at the what's Jeff gonna say stuff. I think maybe next week, maybe in between these shows, we'll take a look at it and discuss it a little bit because I just I just think there's something kind of fun there maybe to root for on the side perhaps, but not right now. It's not open as we do this. So anyway, parting thoughts, feel free to throw them out. Yeah, I mean I again I I I think this the parting thought is you got to find the right time on Siri. I think she's she's they're they're building her up so much. Yeah. That there's no way she gets all the way through. But you are you are on it, man. And she was at 10. Two weeks later she's at 20. That is why you listen to the antenna. And also why you got to go on over to the sevenoracles.com. We are crushing it in terms of our videos, our podcast, our newsletter, our tools. It is absolutely amazing. If you want to profit from these prediction markets, these seven oracles with the numeral 7.com is the place to be. Sign up for the free newsletter. And also, if you want to get a chance to kind of click around and find out, listen, we are giving you an incredible deal. Not one, not two, but six free months if you subscribe and use the promo code the seven oracles at checkout. And just think about it, six months from now, that means you have access to our tools through the NFL draft, through the NBA playoffs, through the World Cup and our World Cup hub is absolutely ridiculous. and all the way through, you know, whatever is going on with our current administration, which is obviously going to take, you talk about the turns in a survivor season is obviously going to take so many more turns going into the midterm elections. You know, I I you're you're talking about California governor's races. I'm talking about country music sales. There is so much out there to take advantage of at the sevenoracles.com. You got to get down with us and join the prediction market Illuminati. Yeah. On that note, good luck everybody with your possible buying and selling this week. We're sitting tight for the moment until Aubrey keeps just chip chip chip chip chip chip chip. Stay tuned. Thank you for joining us. We'll see you next time on the antenna. The tribe has spoken.