United States 2–3 Türkiye: World Cup 2026 Result
By The 7 Oracles · · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Quick Answer
United States 2–3 Türkiye — full time, 2026 World Cup Group D. Our pre-match call (USA to win) missed.
Availability
Christian Pulisic was electric in 45 minutes of the opener (an assist before a precautionary halftime rest at 3-0) and is expected fully available. He's a genuine assist threat every match and the PK taker, even though no spot kick came in the opener. Folarin Balogun is the proven finisher after his debut brace; together they're the co-lead scoring threats.
Live model · simulation updated
Single-match handicaps and tournament outrights are different contracts — a team with a 0% outright can still be very tradeable on a single-match handicap or scorer prop.
Market Edges — United States
Market Edges — Türkiye
Tournament Path · 10K Sim
Single-elimination compounds variance — a side that wins ~75% of individual matches still only lifts the trophy ~13% of the time over seven rounds. Where the market implies a higher number than the funnel, the favorite is a short contract.
Key Scorers · United States vs Türkiye
| Player | PK | Intl G | Golden Boot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | ||||
| Folarin Balogun | — | 16 | — | |
| Christian Pulisic | ✓ | 14 | 0.8% | |
| Türkiye | ||||
| Kenan Yildiz | — | 14 | — | |
| Hakan Çalhanoglu | ✓ | 12 | — | |
Golden Boot = probability of finishing the tournament's top scorer (10K sim). Intl G = senior international goals.
Group D · Model Standings
| Team | Outright | Sim Win | Group Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | +8991 | 1.1% | 100% |
| Australia | 0.3% | 100% | |
| Paraguay | 0.1% | 100% | |
| Türkiye | <0.1% | 0% |
Team Profiles
Style of play, key scorers, set-piece routines, and aerial threats for both sides.
Playing Style
High press, physically dominant midfield, direct in transition. More comfortable attacking on the counter than controlling possession. Set pieces are a genuine weapon. Home crowd in every group match is a real X factor — all group games on American soil. Knockout run: Beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 but lost Folarin Balogun to a red card — he is SUSPENDED for the Belgium tie. Christian Pulisic now leads the line.
Key Scorers
Folarin Balogun · 16g
AS Monaco — opened the World Cup with a debut brace (31' and first-half stoppage) and scored the first live goal of the 4-1 win ov…
Christian Pulisic · 14g
AC Milan — Captain America and the all-time No…
Ricardo Pepi · 5g
PSV Eindhoven — a super sub, nothing more: the late closer off the bench, well behind Balogun in the pecking order…
Key Creators
- Christian Pulisic · Winger / No. 10
- Gio Reyna · No. 10
- Weston McKennie · Box-to-box CM
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Christian Pulisic
- Free Kicks
- Christian Pulisic
- Corners
- Antonee Robinson / Tim Weah
Aerial Threats
- Chris Richards — Crystal Palace centre back…
- Weston McKennie — Physical, dangerous in the 18-yard box on crosses…
Tactical Notes
USMNT under Mauricio Pochettino plays a compact 4-3-3 that transitions to 4-2-3-1 in possession. Best when pressing and exploiting space on the counter. Weakest when forced to break down a parked bus — lacks the creative midfield to unlock low blocks. The 2026 advantage: all group matches on American soil. Historical data says host nations advance from groups 85% of the time. This squad is better than the sum of its parts when the crowd is behind them.
Qual
8-5-4
GF
30
GA
22
Playing Style
Türkiye qualified via UEFA Playoff C, beating Kosovo 1-0. Under coach Vincenzo Montella, they play an attacking 4-2-3-1 built around two exceptional playmakers: Arda Güler (Real Madrid) and Hakan Çalhanoglu (Inter). Kenan Yildiz (Juventus) is the goal threat — a 7.66 season rating and relentless work rate in the box. Türkiye's ceiling is an R16 or QF run. Their group draw — USA, Paraguay, Australia — is very winnable. Totals: OVER in attack-heavy matchups.
Key Scorers
Kenan Yildiz · 14g
Juventus…
Hakan Çalhanoglu · 12g
Inter Milan…
Arda Güler · 9g
Real Madrid…
Key Creators
- Hakan Çalhanoglu · Central midfielder
- Kenan Yildiz · Striker/Second forward
- Arda Güler · Attacking midfielder
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Hakan Çalhanoglu
- Free Kicks
- Hakan Çalhanoglu / Arda Güler
- Corners
- Arda Güler (delivery) / Merih Demiral (target)
Aerial Threats
- Merih Demiral — Central defender…
- Kenan Yildiz — Good in the air for his size…
Tactical Notes
Türkiye is the most dangerous of the six playoff qualifiers. Their group (USA, Paraguay, Australia) is beatable. If Güler and Çalhanoglu are both fit and in form, Turkey can advance. The R16 is their realistic ceiling — they'd face a second-place Group C finisher, likely a manageable draw. Arda Güler is the X-factor: when he plays freely and isn't double-marked, Turkey becomes a completely different team. Watch his early form in the group for R16 handicap bets. MD1 RESULT (Jun 13, vs Australia, 0-2 loss): a flat, costly opener — Çalhanoğlu (our anytime pick) blanked and the attack never clicked; Kenan Yıldız started on the bench and only came on at halftime. Conceded on the counter (27') and off a 75' giveaway. Need a response or Group D advancement gets tight.
Qual
8-3-3
GF
22
GA
14
Who is favored in United States vs Türkiye?
United States and Türkiye meet in Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-25 at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles. Our simulation gives United States a clear edge — a 44-point win probability gap separating these sides. United States enters with a 100% advancement probability in our model vs Türkiye at 0%. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Both Teams to Score is also in play — both sides have real scoring threats that should test the opposing defense. Top value play: USA to win.
Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that’s where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →
For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.
United States’s Other Matches
Türkiye’s Other Matches
Other Group D Matches
What would change this model? A late star-player injury, a manager change inside six weeks of kickoff, or a major surface/venue surprise. The simulation re-runs nightly — see the methodology — and we republish whenever match-level residuals move more than a couple of points.
Run the Numbers
Get the World Cup edge — daily mispriced contracts and model picks to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.