United States vs Türkiye: World Cup 2026 Prediction
By The 7 Oracles · · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Live model · simulation updated
Tournament Path · 10K Sim
Single-elimination compounds variance — a side that wins ~75% of individual matches still only lifts the trophy ~13% of the time over seven rounds. Where the market implies a higher number than the funnel, the favorite is a short contract.
Key Scorers · United States vs Türkiye
| Player | PK | Intl G | Golden Boot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | ||||
| Christian Pulisic | ✓ | 32 | 2.5% | |
| Ricardo Pepi | — | 13 | — | |
| Türkiye | ||||
| Kenan Yildiz | — | 14 | — | |
| Hakan Çalhanoglu | ✓ | 12 | — | |
Golden Boot = probability of finishing the tournament's top scorer (10K sim). Intl G = senior international goals.
Group D · Model Standings
| Team | Outright | Sim Win | Group Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | +33233 | 0.3% | 88.5% |
| Australia | +49900 | 0.2% | 72.8% |
| Türkiye | +99900 | 0.1% | 70.1% |
| Paraguay | +99999 | <0.1% | 46.8% |
Team Profiles
Style of play, key scorers, set-piece routines, and aerial threats for both sides.
Playing Style
High press, physically dominant midfield, direct in transition. More comfortable attacking on the counter than controlling possession. Set pieces are a genuine weapon. Home crowd in every group match is a real X factor — all group games on American soil.
Key Scorers
Christian Pulisic · 32g
AC Milan captain…
Ricardo Pepi · 13g
PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)…
Folarin Balogun · 12g
AS Monaco…
Key Creators
- Christian Pulisic · Winger / No. 10
- Gio Reyna · No. 10
- Weston McKennie · Box-to-box CM
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Christian Pulisic
- Free Kicks
- Christian Pulisic
- Corners
- Antonee Robinson / Tim Weah
Aerial Threats
- Walker Zimmerman — Defender who attacks set pieces…
- Weston McKennie — Physical, dangerous in the 18-yard box on crosses…
Tactical Notes
USMNT under Mauricio Pochettino plays a compact 4-3-3 that transitions to 4-2-3-1 in possession. Best when pressing and exploiting space on the counter. Weakest when forced to break down a parked bus — lacks the creative midfield to unlock low blocks. The 2026 advantage: all group matches on American soil. Historical data says host nations advance from groups 85% of the time. This squad is better than the sum of its parts when the crowd is behind them.
Qual
8-5-4
GF
30
GA
22
Playing Style
Türkiye qualified via UEFA Playoff C, beating Kosovo 1-0. Under coach Vincenzo Montella, they play an attacking 4-2-3-1 built around two exceptional playmakers: Arda Güler (Real Madrid) and Hakan Çalhanoglu (Inter). Kenan Yildiz (Juventus) is the goal threat — a 7.66 season rating and relentless work rate in the box. Türkiye's ceiling is an R16 or QF run. Their group draw — USA, Paraguay, Australia — is very winnable. Totals: OVER in attack-heavy matchups.
Key Scorers
Kenan Yildiz · 14g
Juventus…
Hakan Çalhanoglu · 12g
Inter Milan…
Arda Güler · 9g
Real Madrid…
Key Creators
- Hakan Çalhanoglu · Central midfielder
- Kenan Yildiz · Striker/Second forward
- Arda Güler · Attacking midfielder
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Hakan Çalhanoglu
- Free Kicks
- Hakan Çalhanoglu / Arda Güler
- Corners
- Arda Güler (delivery) / Merih Demiral (target)
Aerial Threats
- Merih Demiral — Central defender…
- Kenan Yildiz — Good in the air for his size…
Tactical Notes
Türkiye is the most dangerous of the six playoff qualifiers. Their group (USA, Paraguay, Australia) is beatable. If Güler and Çalhanoglu are both fit and in form, Turkey can advance. The R16 is their realistic ceiling — they'd face a second-place Group C finisher, likely a manageable draw. Arda Güler is the X-factor: when he plays freely and isn't double-marked, Turkey becomes a completely different team. Watch his early form in the group for R16 handicap bets.
Qual
8-3-3
GF
22
GA
14
Match Analysis
United States and Türkiye meet in Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-25 at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles. Our simulation gives United States a clear edge — a 16-point win probability gap separating these sides. United States enters with a 88.5% advancement probability in our model vs Türkiye at 70.1%. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Both Teams to Score is also in play — both sides have real scoring threats that should test the opposing defense. Top value play: USA to win.
Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that’s where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →
For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.
United States’s Other Matches
Türkiye’s Other Matches
Other Group D Matches
What would change this model? A late star-player injury, a manager change inside six weeks of kickoff, or a major surface/venue surprise. The simulation re-runs nightly — see the methodology — and we republish whenever match-level residuals move more than a couple of points.
Trade This Match
Get the World Cup edge — daily mispriced contracts and model picks to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.