Starting Lineups ▾
Spain (4-3-3)
- 1. Unai Simón
- 2. Marcos Llorente
- 3. Pau Cubarsí
- 4. Aymeric Laporte
- 5. Marc Cucurella
- 6. Rodri
- 7. Pedri
- 8. Fabián Ruiz
- 9. Ferran Torres
- 10. Mikel Oyarzabal
- 11. Gavi
Cape Verde (4-2-3-1)
- 1. Vozinha
- 2. Steven Moreira
- 3. Pico Lopes
- 4. Diney Borges
- 5. Sidny Cabral
- 6. Kevin Pina
- 7. Laros Duarte
- 8. Ryan Mendes
- 9. Jamiro Monteiro
- 10. Jovane Cabral
- 11. Dailon Livramento
Spain 0–0 Cape Verde: World Cup 2026 Result
By The 7 Oracles · · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Quick Answer
Spain 0–0 Cape Verde — full time, 2026 World Cup Group H. Our pre-match call (Spain over 2.5 goals) missed.
Watch: After holding Spain to a draw, how far can Cape Verde go at the 2026 World Cup? The 7 Oracles break down the Blue Sharks’ group-stage path and the prediction-market case for them to advance. Full Cape Verde World Cup 2026 breakdown →
Live model · simulation updated
Environment
Atlanta in mid-summer can run hot for afternoon kickoffs. The model nudges combined goal expectation down a few percent versus a cool-evening baseline as tempo drops in the closing stages.
Model adjustment per The 7 Oracles methodology.
Single-match handicaps and tournament outrights are different contracts — a team with a 0% outright can still be very tradeable on a single-match handicap or scorer prop.
Market Edges — Spain
Market Edges — Cape Verde
Tournament Path · 10K Sim
Single-elimination compounds variance — a side that wins ~75% of individual matches still only lifts the trophy ~13% of the time over seven rounds. Where the market implies a higher number than the funnel, the favorite is a short contract.
Key Scorers · Spain vs Cape Verde
| Player | PK | Intl G | Golden Boot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | ||||
| Mikel Oyarzabal | ✓ | 14 | 6.9% | |
| Dani Olmo | — | 14 | — | |
| Cape Verde | ||||
| Ryan Mendes | ✓ | 18 | — | |
| Garry Rodrigues | — | 12 | — | |
Golden Boot = probability of finishing the tournament's top scorer (10K sim). Intl G = senior international goals.
Group H · Model Standings
| Team | Outright | Sim Win | Group Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | +609 | 14.1% | 100% |
| Cape Verde | <0.1% | 100% | |
| Saudi Arabia | <0.1% | 0% | |
| Uruguay | <0.1% | 0% |
Team Profiles
Style of play, key scorers, set-piece routines, and aerial threats for both sides.
Playing Style
Luis de la Fuente's Spain play a possession-based 4-3-3 that suffocates opponents. Euro 2024 champions with the youngest squad in the draw. Yamal and Williams provide electric width. Rodri anchors midfield. The most complete team in the tournament — depth at every position, tactical flexibility, and a manager who trusts youth. Totals Bias: OVER. Knockout run: Beat Austria 3-0 and are the narrow model favorite over Portugal. Mikel Oyarzabal takes the penalties and leads the line.
Key Scorers
Mikel Oyarzabal · 14g
Real Sociedad…
Dani Olmo · 14g
Barcelona…
Lamine Yamal · 12g
Barcelona…
Key Creators
- Lamine Yamal · Right wing
- Nico Williams · Left wing
- Rodri · Defensive CM
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Mikel Oyarzabal
- Free Kicks
- Dani Olmo
- Corners
- Dani Olmo / Lamine Yamal (delivery) / Mikel Oyarzabal (target)
Aerial Threats
- Mikel Oyarzabal — Real Sociedad…
- Aymeric Laporte — Al Nassr CB (formerly Man City)…
Tactical Notes
Spain are the clear tournament favorites for a reason. Euro 2024 showed this team can dominate possession AND counter-attack at pace. The Yamal-Williams wing combination is the most terrifying in the draw. Rodri (2024 Ballon d'Or winner) is the best defensive midfielder in the world. Group H with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde is manageable — expect Spain to cruise through. The real question is whether any team can match their midfield control in a 90-minute knockout game. The value is NOT in outright winner (too short at +400) — it's in Spain to reach the final or Spain group stage overs.
Qual
14-1-3
GF
48
GA
12
Playing Style
Cape Verde are the African story of this World Cup — an island nation of 600,000 that punches consistently above its weight. Coach Bubista (Pedro Brito) has turned Cape Verde into a legitimate tactical unit: organized 4-4-2 that transitions quickly and exploits set pieces with physical players. Ryan Mendes (Iğdır FK) is the technical leader — a fast, direct winger who plays regularly in the Primeira Liga. Roberto Lopes and Stopira provide the structural platform. Group H with Spain, Uruguay, and Saudi Arabia is a death draw. Cape Verde's target is beating or drawing Saudi Arabia and keeping Spain and Uruguay to respectable scorelines. Totals: UNDER.
Key Scorers
Ryan Mendes · 18g
Iğdır FK…
Garry Rodrigues · 12g
Turkish Super Lig…
Nuno da Costa · 7g
Experienced forward (ex-Nottingham Forest, Caen)…
Key Creators
- Ryan Mendes · Left winger / Attacking midfielder
- Garry Rodrigues · Right winger
- Stopira · Centre back / Captain
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Ryan Mendes
- Free Kicks
- Ryan Mendes
- Corners
- Ryan Mendes (delivery) / Logan Costa, Stopira (aerial targets)
Aerial Threats
- Logan Costa — Toulouse CB, 6'2"…
- Stopira — Captain and veteran centre back who attacks late at corners…
Tactical Notes
Bubista has Cape Verde playing their best football ever. AFCON 2023 quarterfinal, consistent qualifications — this is not a fluke nation. In Group H: Spain win the group, Uruguay should too, but Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia is a real game. Saudi Arabia have better resources but Cape Verde have better tactical cohesion. Ryan Mendes is a seasoned international — he is better than anything Saudi Arabia's domestic league produces. The market has this as a formality for Saudi. It is not.
Qual
5-4-4
GF
14
GA
14
Who is favored in Spain vs Cape Verde?
Spain and Cape Verde meet in Group H at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-15 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. Our simulation gives Spain a clear edge — a 86-point win probability gap separating these sides. Spain enters with a 100% advancement probability in our model vs Cape Verde at 100%. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Top value play: Spain over 2.5 goals.
Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that’s where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →
For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.
Spain’s Other Matches
Cape Verde’s Other Matches
Other Group H Matches
What would change this model? A late star-player injury, a manager change inside six weeks of kickoff, or a major surface/venue surprise. The simulation re-runs nightly — see the methodology — and we republish whenever match-level residuals move more than a couple of points.
Run the Numbers
Get the World Cup edge — daily mispriced contracts and model picks to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.