Senegal vs Iraq: World Cup 2026 Prediction

Match Analysis

Senegal and Iraq meet in Group I at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-21 at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. Our simulation gives Senegal a clear edge — a 11-point win probability gap separating these sides. Senegal enters with a 85.3% advancement probability in our model vs Iraq at 13.7%. This shapes up as a tighter, lower-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals is the lean based on defensive profiles and group stage conservative tactics. Top value play: Senegal to win.

Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that's where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →

For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.