Netherlands 3–1 Tunisia: World Cup 2026 Result
By The 7 Oracles · · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Quick Answer
Netherlands 3–1 Tunisia — full time, 2026 World Cup Group F. Our pre-match call (Netherlands to win) hit.
Live model · simulation updated
Environment
Kansas City in mid-summer can run hot for afternoon kickoffs. The model nudges combined goal expectation down a few percent versus a cool-evening baseline as tempo drops in the closing stages.
Model adjustment per The 7 Oracles methodology.
Single-match handicaps and tournament outrights are different contracts — a team with a 0% outright can still be very tradeable on a single-match handicap or scorer prop.
Market Edges — Netherlands
Market Edges — Tunisia
Tournament Path · 10K Sim
Single-elimination compounds variance — a side that wins ~75% of individual matches still only lifts the trophy ~13% of the time over seven rounds. Where the market implies a higher number than the funnel, the favorite is a short contract.
Key Scorers · Netherlands vs Tunisia
| Player | PK | Intl G | Golden Boot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | ||||
| Cody Gakpo | ✓ | 19 | 1.2% | |
| Donyell Malen | — | 15 | — | |
| Tunisia | ||||
| Firas Chaouat | — | 9 | — | |
| Ellyes Skhiri | — | 8 | — | |
Golden Boot = probability of finishing the tournament's top scorer (10K sim). Intl G = senior international goals.
Group F · Model Standings
| Team | Outright | Sim Win | Group Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | +1686 | 5.6% | 100% |
| Japan | +3233 | 3% | 100% |
| Sweden | +19900 | 0.5% | 100% |
| Tunisia | <0.1% | 0% |
Team Profiles
Style of play, key scorers, set-piece routines, and aerial threats for both sides.
Playing Style
Ronald Koeman's Netherlands play a physical 4-3-3 that defends compactly and attacks with pace on the wings. Van Dijk organizes the backline. Gakpo and Reijnders provide creativity. This team lacks the flair of historic Dutch squads but compensates with organization and physicality.
Key Scorers
Cody Gakpo · 19g
Liverpool…
Donyell Malen · 15g
Roma (on loan from Aston Villa)…
Memphis Depay · 14g
Corinthians…
Key Creators
- Cody Gakpo · Left wing
- Frenkie de Jong · Central midfielder / Deep playmaker
- Tijjani Reijnders · Central CM
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Cody Gakpo
- Free Kicks
- Memphis Depay (returned from a hamstring issue as a 70' sub vs Japan; Gakpo / Reijnders cover when he doesn't start)
- Corners
- Memphis Depay / Cody Gakpo
Aerial Threats
- Virgil van Dijk — Liverpool captain…
- Micky van de Ven — Tottenham CB…
Tactical Notes
Netherlands are the tournament's 'danger team' — not outright favorites but capable of beating anyone on a given day. They reached the 2022 QF and lost to Argentina on PKs in a classic. Van Dijk in the center of defense is world-class. Injury picture for the Japan opener (MD1): Xavi Simons and Jerdy Schouten are both out for the tournament with ACL injuries; Memphis Depay is managing a hamstring and is a doubt to start, with Wout Weghorst expected to lead the line as a target man; Matthijs de Ligt is not fully fit. The good news — Frenkie de Jong is fit and expected to start, so the midfield (De Jong, Gravenberch, Reijnders) is at full strength, not in doubt. Probable XI vs Japan (4-3-3): Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van de Ven, Van Dijk (c), Ake; Gravenberch, De Jong, Reijnders; Malen, Weghorst, Gakpo. Japan is the classic trap game — they beat Germany and Spain in 2022 and beat Brazil and England in 2025-26 friendlies — but they are missing first-choice winger Kaoru Mitoma here. MD1 RESULT (Jun 14, vs Japan, 2-2 draw): took the lead twice (Van Dijk 51' off a Gravenberch cross; sub Summerville 64', Gravenberch's 2nd assist) but conceded a 57' Nakamura strike and an 89' Kamada header from a Junya Ito corner — a clear set-piece-defending weakness despite Van Dijk/van de Ven's aerial size. Depay (hamstring) came off the bench at 70'; Gakpo started and blanked; Weghorst unused. Corners on the night were taken by Reijnders and Depay, not just the listed pair. 1 point, must tighten set pieces vs Sweden/Tunisia.
Qual
9-3-4
GF
34
GA
18
Playing Style
Tunisia are AFCON regulars who arrive at the World Cup with a disciplined, compact 4-3-3 built on defensive organization and counter-attacking football. Ellyes Skhiri (Eintracht Frankfurt) is the quality anchor — technically the best Tunisian player in European football. Firas Chaouat is the focal point up front. Hannibal Mejbri provides energy and creativity in the middle. Tunisia's football philosophy is conservative: defend your structure, win second balls, and hit on the break. Group F draw is everything — one winnable game makes all the difference. Totals: UNDER — Tunisia are defensive-first in every game.
Key Scorers
Firas Chaouat · 9g
Zamalek…
Ellyes Skhiri · 8g
Eintracht Frankfurt…
Hannibal Mejbri · 6g
Burnley…
Key Creators
- Ellyes Skhiri · Central midfielder
- Firas Chaouat · Centre forward
- Hannibal Mejbri · No. 10 / Central mid
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Ali Abdi
- Free Kicks
- Ellyes Skhiri
- Corners
- Ellyes Skhiri / Ali Abdi (delivery) / Montassar Talbi, Dylan Bronn (targets)
Aerial Threats
- Montassar Talbi — Lorient CB…
- Dylan Bronn — Salernitana/elsewhere…
Tactical Notes
Tunisia's World Cup ceiling is a group-stage exit with some respectability. That's the honest assessment. Skhiri is the only player who could realistically play for a top-20 European nation. The rest of the squad is built for AFCON-level football. Their compact 4-3-3 can frustrate better teams for 60 minutes — they held France to 1-0 in 2022 — but sustaining that for a full group stage is very difficult. The market edge: Tunisia group game unders are a consistent bet. They will defend and counter. Back Tunisia to keep it close against their weakest group opponent. Against a top team, back under 3.5 goals.
Qual
7-3-4
GF
19
GA
14
Who is favored in Netherlands vs Tunisia?
Netherlands and Tunisia meet in Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-25 at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. Our simulation gives Netherlands a clear edge — a 73-point win probability gap separating these sides. Netherlands enters with a 100% advancement probability in our model vs Tunisia at 0%. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Both Teams to Score is also in play — both sides have real scoring threats that should test the opposing defense. Top value play: Netherlands to win.
Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that’s where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →
For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.
Netherlands’s Other Matches
Tunisia’s Other Matches
Other Group F Matches
What would change this model? A late star-player injury, a manager change inside six weeks of kickoff, or a major surface/venue surprise. The simulation re-runs nightly — see the methodology — and we republish whenever match-level residuals move more than a couple of points.
Run the Numbers
Get the World Cup edge — daily mispriced contracts and model picks to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.