Who will win Morocco vs Haiti at the 2026 World Cup?

Our 10,000-simulation model gives Morocco a 42% win probability, with 25% chance of a draw and 33% for Haiti. Top value play: En-Nesyri anytime scorer.

Will Morocco vs Haiti go over 2.5 goals?

Our simulation projects this match as an Over 2.5 goals lean based on both teams' attacking output and defensive profiles.

GROUP CMATCHDAY 2

Morocco vs Haiti: World Cup 2026 Prediction

2026-06-17 · Lumen Field, Seattle

Morocco vs Haiti — World Cup 2026 Group C prediction graphic

10,000 Sim Result

42%Morocco+138

25%Draw+300

33%Haiti+203

Over 2.5: Yes ✓BTTS: No

Top Value Play

En-Nesyri anytime scorer

Morocco

Odds+4900

Advance %95.1%

Win title %2%

Haiti

Odds+99999

Advance %13.1%

Win title %0%

Match Analysis

Morocco and Haiti meet in Group C at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-17 at Lumen Field, Seattle. This is one of the tighter matches in Group C. The simulation sees these teams as closely matched, with just a 9-point spread. Morocco enters with a 95.1% advancement probability in our model vs Haiti at 13.1%. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Top value play: En-Nesyri anytime scorer.

Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that's where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →

For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.