Morocco 4–2 Haiti: World Cup 2026 Result
By The 7 Oracles · · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Quick Answer
Morocco 4–2 Haiti — full time, 2026 World Cup Group C. Our pre-match call (El Kaabi anytime scorer) missed.
Live model · simulation updated
Environment
Atlanta in mid-summer can run hot for afternoon kickoffs. The model nudges combined goal expectation down a few percent versus a cool-evening baseline as tempo drops in the closing stages.
Model adjustment per The 7 Oracles methodology.
Single-match handicaps and tournament outrights are different contracts — a team with a 0% outright can still be very tradeable on a single-match handicap or scorer prop.
Market Edges — Morocco
Market Edges — Haiti
Tournament Path · 10K Sim
Single-elimination compounds variance — a side that wins ~75% of individual matches still only lifts the trophy ~13% of the time over seven rounds. Where the market implies a higher number than the funnel, the favorite is a short contract.
Key Scorers · Morocco vs Haiti
| Player | PK | Intl G | Golden Boot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | ||||
| Ayoub El Kaabitop pick | — | 18 | 0.7% | |
| Soufiane Rahimi | — | 8 | — | |
| Haiti | ||||
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | ✓ | 14 | — | |
| Duckens Nazon | — | 9 | — | |
Golden Boot = probability of finishing the tournament's top scorer (10K sim). Intl G = senior international goals.
Group C · Model Standings
| Team | Outright | Sim Win | Group Adv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | +1308 | 7.1% | 100% |
| Morocco | +4662 | 2.1% | 100% |
| Haiti | <0.1% | 0% | |
| Scotland | <0.1% | 0% |
Team Profiles
Style of play, key scorers, set-piece routines, and aerial threats for both sides.
Playing Style
Morocco recently appointed Mohamed Ouahbi as head coach, replacing Walid Regragui (the 2022 WC semifinal hero). The coaching change 3 months before the tournament is a wildcard — but the squad is deep with European-based talent. Defensively organized, dangerous on transitions and set pieces. Hakimi is world-class at RB. The 2022 semifinal run was no fluke. Totals Bias: UNDER. Knockout run: Edged the Netherlands on penalties (1-1) to reach the Round of 16 against Canada. Ayoub El Kaabi leads the line, Brahim Díaz on penalties.
Key Scorers
Ayoub El Kaabi · 18g
Olympiacos…
Soufiane Rahimi · 8g
Al-Ain…
Brahim Díaz · 6g
Real Madrid…
Key Creators
- Achraf Hakimi · Right back / Wing back
- Bilal El Khannouss · No. 10 / Right wing
- Azzedine Ounahi · Central CM
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Brahim Díaz
- Free Kicks
- Achraf Hakimi / Azzedine Ounahi
- Corners
- Achraf Hakimi (delivery) / Issa Diop, Chadi Riad (targets). MD1 vs Brazil: El Kaabi benched, Saibari led the line — confirm the XI before leaning on El Kaabi as the aerial target.
Aerial Threats
- Ayoub El Kaabi — 2024 AFCON top scorer…
- Issa Diop — Fulham…
Tactical Notes
Morocco's 2022 semi-final run changed how the world views African football. The key question for 2026 is whether the coaching change from Regragui to Ouahbi disrupts the system. Ouahbi inherits a talented squad but has limited time to implement his ideas. Hakimi at RB is world-class. A late double injury blow reshaped the squad: first-choice CB Nayef Aguerd (groin surgery) and winger Abde Ezzalzouli (knee) were both ruled out and replaced on the FIFA roster on June 10 — so the back line is now Chadi Riad alongside Issa Diop. Bilal El Khannouss provides the creative gear in midfield. Group C with Brazil, Scotland, and Haiti — Morocco vs. Brazil is the group match of the tournament. Scotland and Haiti are both winnable. Market edge: Morocco to advance from Group C is near-certain. MD1 update (June 13): Brazil 1-1 Morocco at MetLife. Ouahbi sprang a surprise XI — Ismael Saibari started as the central striker and chipped Alisson for the opener (21'), with Ayoub El Kaabi and Soufiane Rahimi both on the bench. Brahim Díaz (PK) and Hakimi (corner/FK delivery) kept their set-piece roles; no penalty was awarded. Vinícius Jr equalised (32'). Injuries reshaped the squad pre-tournament: Nayef Aguerd (groin) and Abde Ezzalzouli (knee) are both out of the finals.
Qual
10-2-4
GF
32
GA
10
Playing Style
Haiti are making their second World Cup appearance (first was 1974) after winning the CONCACAF qualification playoff. Coach Sebastien Migne has installed a defensive 4-5-1 that is hard to break down but offers little going forward. Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (Wolves) is the best player in Haitian football history — a technically gifted box-to-box midfielder who makes Oliver Glasner's Eagles tick. Duckens Nazon provides the pace threat on the counter. Group C with Brazil, Morocco, and Scotland is brutal — Haiti's realistic target is avoiding historic embarrassments and possibly stealing a point off Scotland. Totals: UNDER — Migne teams sit deep and make games ugly.
Key Scorers
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · 14g
Wolves…
Duckens Nazon · 9g
PAOK (Greece)…
Frantzdy Pierrot · 8g
AEK Larnaca…
Key Creators
- Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Central midfielder
- Duckens Nazon · Second striker / Left winger
- Carlens Arcus · Right back
Set Pieces
- PK Taker
- Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
- Free Kicks
- Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
- Corners
- Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (delivery) / Frantzdy Pierrot, Ricardo Adé (aerial targets)
Aerial Threats
- Ricardo Adé — Physical centre back, 6'2"…
- Duckens Nazon — Less of an aerial threat but attacks short corners and flick-ons…
Tactical Notes
Haiti are in survival mode in Group C. Brazil and Morocco are genuine title threats. Scotland are a fully professional European side. Migne will park the bus, give Bellegarde freedom to create, and hope for one set piece moment. The realistic scenario: three losses, 0 points, minimum 2-5 goals conceded total. The market overestimates how often massive underdogs score at World Cups. Haiti will keep it below 2 goals per game through sheer defensive effort. Bellegarde v Brazil is the matchup to watch — a Premier League midfielder on the biggest stage. MD1 RESULT (Jun 13, vs Scotland, 0-1 loss): competitive but blank on their World Cup return, beaten by a single deflected McGinn strike. Defended well enough to keep it to one; the issue was creating clear chances. Must find goals to stay alive in the group.
Qual
5-4-4
GF
14
GA
16
Who is favored in Morocco vs Haiti?
Morocco and Haiti meet in Group C at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 2026-06-24 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. Our simulation gives Morocco a clear edge — a 80-point win probability gap separating these sides. Morocco enters with a 100% advancement probability in our model vs Haiti at 0%. The Over 2.5 goals is our primary market play. The combined attacking profiles of these sides project to a high-scoring affair. Top value play: El Kaabi anytime scorer.
Prediction markets price these outcomes in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket. Our simulation provides a baseline probability model — when the market diverges by 5+ percentage points from our sim, that’s where the edge lives. Convert any market price to implied probability →
For the full methodology behind these projections, see How Our Monte Carlo Simulation Works. All 48-team advancement probabilities are available in the Full Simulation Results.
Morocco’s Other Matches
Haiti’s Other Matches
Other Group C Matches
What would change this model? A late star-player injury, a manager change inside six weeks of kickoff, or a major surface/venue surprise. The simulation re-runs nightly — see the methodology — and we republish whenever match-level residuals move more than a couple of points.
Run the Numbers
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